First the rain.
Right now we are right between the heavy rain to our east, and lighter rain to our west. We are stuck with light mist, fog, until very late tonight or even later tomorrow morning. The rain that comes on Sat could briefly be heavy. It will then change to heavy wet snow over the mountains to our west. The snow will try to make it into our area, but it won't. Maybe a flurry or light snow shower overnight, but nothing to get excited about.
The biggest issue for forecasting is Sat's temperatures. By all means models showed it should have been in the 40's by now. I lowered those numbers to 40. But we are still in the mid and upper 30s for the most part. There are some 40's to our east. But will we rise into the 40's or stay stuck in the cooler, low level air? It will be close. Right now I think lower 40's but that could be off by 5 degrees either way. Tough call.
And now the Mess.
Monday morning the next system come racing into our area with some light snow in the morning. As warm air moves in above us the snow will change sleet/freezing rain. Eventually, it will turn to all rain before ending by midnight Tue morning.
This is not a big storm. But it will have an impact on roads. Final details will come this weekend.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.