Quick to Listen, and Slow to Speak

The images above illustrate points 1 and 2 below. The last picture shows the total amount of precipitation the GFS model is predicting to give you an idea (it show 1/2" to 1" at this time)

The winter break is ending … slowly. Much of our snow has melted. A groundhog has stated that Spring will come early. Well, the first 6 days of February felt rather non-winter-like. But the next 7 days through Valentine’s Day may be a very different story.

I have been quiet over the last few days about the forecast, the main reason is that nothing has changed from what I said in my prior post. When there is vast amounts of speculation, but little clarity, then no sense in adding to the drama. Nothing has changed anyway ... 

1. Big storm off SE US coast will stay off the coast.
2. Big trough will develop and bring us snow next Mon night into Tue night.  

What I am confident of now:

• This next storm for us will NOT be like the blizzard.
• It will NOT have a major intensifying area of low pressure associated with it.
• It will be slow moving. A long duration event over 36 hours. This snow will likely be driven by the upper dynamics of the upper atmosphere.
• This means much of the snow will be light to moderate, not intense.
• I do expect at least 4" at this point. More details will come by Sun evening. 

In case you are wondering, this storm early next week will signal the return of winter for at least the next 2-3 weeks. 

Weather Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Winter Returns: January thaw is over, and winter returns in a step down fashion. Seasonally pleasant weather Sat-Sun.  
2. Major Ocean Storm: Yes, a very large and powerful storm will develop and hammer Nova Scotia, and Newfoundland. There is scuttlebutt that it might swing west to drop snow on us. Sorry. Upper levels are all wrong for that to happen. Don’t see it.  
3. Snow Returns:  Monday night and Tuesday. I would expect at least 4”. Details still need worked out. Some snow showers will be around Wed – Thu. Possible light accumulating snow Fri night – Sat morning.   
4. Chilly Mon – Tue, Cold Wed – Fri; Very cold Sat – Sun

   
Upcoming 7 Days:

Saturday: 40. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.          

Sunday: 43. Mostly sunny. Some clouds in afternoon. Pleasant.     

Monday: 36. Mostly cloudy. Snow arriving after dark.     

Tuesday: 32. Mostly cloudy. Periods of light to moderate snow.     

Wednesday: 29. Mostly cloudy. Flurries and snow showers around.            

Thursday: 26. Sun and clouds. Flurries. Gusty wind at times.    

Friday: 27. Increasing clouds. Light snow arrives overnight.