Pattern Transition Underway in a Big Way

The transition from the trough/west and ridge/east to ridge/west and trough/east for the heart and end of winter is well in progress right now.

Stormy and active weather is an understatement for this past week. When two kids sit next to each other, they might squabble and argue some, but as long as they like where they are sitting, no big fights. When one decides that his sibling has the better seat and wants to trade, but his sibling doesn’t want to trade a fight can break out. Well, right now the trough wants the seat of its sibling the ridge. But the ridge doesn’t want to give it up. A fight is breaking out: Tons of rain in the east this week. Severe weather outbreak worthy of early spring made headlines (Condolences to families who lost loved ones). And a lot more rain, snow and ice over the next week as well.

It is much calmer over the west coast now and will remain that way for a while. When one seat is fought over, the seat that was vacated is calm. The trough is leaving its western seat. Calm as can be out there after a lot of wet/snowy weather over the last couple of months.
While this fight rages in the east, winter will slowly make inroads. It will not be a suddenly snap. By the middle of January, we should see winter really settle in. Until then cold will rule more and more, and mild will rule less and less.

This coming week will feature one more very warm day (Sun), raw chilly day (Mon), mild day (Tue), seasonally mild days (Wed-Thu) and a seasonal/cold day (Fri). Enjoy!
 
My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:

1. Rain: Cold rain, with some ice at the very beginning in the higher elevations, otherwise just cold, raw soaking Mon evening into Midday Tue. Expect 1-1.5” from this storm. Another bought of rain will come Wed night into Thu. Unsure if this will be a soaking or just showers. The bulk should stay east of us, but there is room for it to come further west.  
2. Sunshine: Next full sunny day will likely wait next Friday at the earliest. Partial sun possible early Sunday, early Monday and Wed.     
3. 70 again? If some partial sun breaks out early Sunday temps will push 70 again. The amazing 60 days of November … wait its December. Sure feels like extended November to me will continue through Sunday and then … its real December weather will hit when it’s nearly January. It’s like were a month behind …  
4. Sleet/Freezing Rain? Mon evening a big storm begins. This will start as a period of sleet I believe. A shallow artic air mass will be moving into our area Sun night/Mon, supported by a strong area of high pressure to our north. Sleet should start due to below freezing air at 925 mb and near freezing at 850 mb. With the presence of mild air, snow that falls will melt into rain, then freeze into balls of ice through shallow artic air near surface. Thankfully, freezing rain is not a problem, (except for trees on the highest ridges for a time overnight) as temps will be at or above 32 at the onset and the ground temps are very mild yet. So sleet, then rain.
5. Snow?  Getting closer. No snow with any system through New Year’s Eve. Some snow to our north in NY and New England. But not here. Not yet. It is coming. After Jan 1st.     

 
Saturday: 50. Cloudy. Brief period of rain arriving in afternoon. Temps rising overnight.   

Sunday: 65 early. Mostly cloudy. Growing colder late. Showers possible.

Monday: 39. Much colder. Cold rain arriving. Begins with period of sleet. Temps slowly rising overnight.  
Tuesday: 47. Rain ending. Clearing overnight. Milder.

Wednesday: 47. Partly sunny then increasing clouds. Some rain/showers at night. 

New Year’s Eve: 44. Mostly cloudy. Possible showers. Clearing late.   

New Year’s Day:  38. Mostly sunny. Relatively cold. Flurries/late snow shower possible.  

---