One More Week then Arctic Cold Returns

Last week of gentler pattern. Yes, our Thaw is what happened in Nov and Dec as stated earlier. Yes, this time it lasted longer than the one in Dec, and it came after some severe cold, so a thaw it was. But it was not a new pattern when looking at the longer-term set-up, esp. when looking ahead and seeing a freight train of cold and stormy weather coming starting next weekend.

It will be cold. It will be stormy. February will NOT be warm. But before we get there, we have one small weather feature of interest to predict.

Monday – Tuesday:  A Low pressure near the SC/NC coastline will be moving NE.  Upper level energy will be heading SE toward the low pressure.

• Will upper energy push low out to sea? If yes, then when it moves through widespread snow showers will result Tuesday Morning. (POSSIBLE – 40%)
• Will upper energy help vent the region to the NW of low causing an expansion of precipitation and giving us widespread light snow Monday night and snow showers Tue morning. (POSSIBLE – 55%)
• Will upper energy capture low pressure? If yes, then it will pull low closer to coast, and we get a widespread light to moderate snowfall. (LEAST LIKELY – 5%)

 
Right now, I am leaning toward the second option. There are similarities with our mid-December 2” snowfall. This too came from a coastal low, that was too far away to give us heavy snow, yet the upper energy vented the NW side, expanding the amount of light precipitation. This set up reminds me of that.

After this it remains cold, Tue and Wed, but then we grow mild again for Thu and probably Fri. But we can deal with that later as Friday is the day of transition from mild and gentle (temperature-wise) to cold and stormy.