A very cold weekend indeed!
Friday, Saturday, and Sunday were all well below average with a brisk wind to make feel even colder. The sunshine was nice and the snow showers/squalls on Friday were more impressive than I expected. We are in the colder part of our repeated 4-week cycle.
It is humorous to look back at many declarations of winter being over, an early spring, and a couple day shot of cool air, the warmth will surge back, and a heat wave may come mid-month. Yet, if one looked back over the last 3 months a 4-week cycle, with variations of course, was evident. Based on this alone, and little to no operational model, ensemble model, or weekly model support, I expected it to turn cold for a period of 7-10 days, then a transition to mild then warm. Well, guess what? Friday – today was cold (~7 below average for the 4 days). It appears that observation is going to beat the pants off the computers!
The 7-10 days of colder weather would take us through next Sunday. Tue and Wed look warm (50s) but then seasonal Thu, and cold Fri – Sun once again. The cold may extend a few days beyond that 10-day target too. I expect by the 15th to see the coldest air start shifting west, and warmth begin to increase in the east.
Now we have some complex stuff to talk about: Late this week. Thu night and Fri a fast moving system looks to move toward us. But is it over us (rain)? Or south of us (snow)? After this another system moves toward us on Sat into Sun morning. Is it south (heavy snow)? Or way south (light snow/flurries)? Then another system comes Mon and Mon night.
That makes 3 storms in a span of 4 days. Each system will impact the one that follows. Lots of questions. Lots of uncertainty when it comes to details. In general, expect a cold, end of the week with some snow into early next week. Welcome to March.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.