October 19th, 2015

WINTER FORECAST:  If you want some good discussion go to www.weatherbell.com or www.nynjpaweather.com both are excellent and have similar forecasts. I follow both of these forecasters for their indepth study and knowledge and skill. I've learned alot from them. So for details see their sites. I agree with them for the most part.

My simple forecast is for a similar trend will occur this year as we had last winter which means: 

• Temps: A trend downward as we move deeper into winter. That is, Dec is the mildest, and Feb the coldest month of winter. Just not as severely cold as last Feb.  
• Snow:  Similar to last winter, but potential for more. Potential is there for some big storms with El Nino giving stronger southern storms with Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic moisture. We have not had a big storm of 8" or more since 2010!  Hard to believe, but I would not be surprised to see one or two storms with 10" or more in them like 2009-10 winter had. 

 
Back to This Week: 

Well, it was frosty this morning.  A hard freeze. The growing season is over for this year. On a side note, the average freeze for our area I learned last week is Oct 20. This morning, it is Oct 19. Pretty average!  But the cod will begin retreating today. 

Did you see the show showers yesterday? Now yesterday’s snow showers were nothing to write home about, just our first sighting for the season. Nothing like that coming again for a while. Have to wait until November for a shot at seeing more snow showers.

For this week?  We have a trough lifting out, taking the cold air with it, as the big cold high settles to our south, bringing warming westerly winds to our area. Temps will jump into the 60s for midweek, maybe nearing 70 on Thu. A cool down for Fri and then another front with the only real chance for showers this week on Sat night/Sunday.  

Since it will remain dry, enjoy the days, evenings, and fall colors. This would be a great week to get out and enjoy. Next week is looking stormier and wetter. But when you have zero storminess and less than .25” of rain, hard not to be stormier and wetter, is it?
 
My Weather Points for this Week:

1. Warming: low 50s Mon to upper 60s Thu. Chance frost/freeze in just lower valleys Tue night.  
2. Dry: Showers Sat night/Sunday. Rest of rain stays north in NY state mid-week.     

 
Monday: 52. Mostly sunny. Chilly. Frost/freeze at night in lower valleys.                     
Tuesday: 63. Mostly sunny. Pleasant. 
Wednesday: 67. Mostly sunny. Breezy. Warmer.
Thursday: 69. At least partly sunny. Breezy.         
Friday: 53. Sun and clouds. Chilly breeze. Frosty overnight.      
Saturday: 61. Mostly sunny. Milder.   
Sunday: 63. Mostly cloudy. Chance showers.