To All Our Veterans: Thank You!
Today will be a nice day for most of us. Some sunshine early through the high clouds, and milder temps with highs into the low to mid 50’s. Not bad at all. Fairly seasonal with a touch of mild tossed in. But it won’t last. Big changes come tonight.
The frontal system coming, which looked like it had potential to give us our first widespread snowfall of the year, will give the northern Ohio Valley, NW PA and the NW half of NY and northern New England a good dumping of heavy snow. But for us, a sweeping line of light rain, changing to light snow is about it.
Like last Thu, how much precipitation is behind the front will be key to how much snow there really is to fall and maybe whiten the ground. Right now, most of the moisture is behind the front. But will it last? I think so. But there are some inhibiting factors in getting a nice snowfall (>2):
The ridge tops have the best chance of seeing any snow stick to the colder surfaces. At the most a slushy ½” – 1” might occur in the highest elevations. I really am not too excited about snowfall with this set up
What could change this? A stronger than expected impulse energizes the front east of the mtns, almost producing convective snow. This would provide a burst of heavy snow for 2-3 hours from 7 am – 10 am Tue. This is highly unlikely. But it is possible. Maybe 5% chance or less!
After this its cold. Snow flurries, and a snow shower or two is possible Tue into Wed morning. There could be some heavier show showers around too. They could whiten the ground also. But you cannot predict where they will fall.
Cold Wed and into Thu. A weak system, acting more like a warm front, will move in Thu and bring a chance for a snow shower or two as warmer air returns, relatively speaking that is. Instead of highs around freezing, we will warm into the 40’s. Still cool, but much nicer to the middle of Nov.
That is about all. If you want snow, drive to Rochester NY. They’ll get 6” or more. If not, enjoy the milder day today.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.