Severe weather is quite possible from mid-afternoon through the first part of tonight
The biggest threat is for strong winds and local flooding due to very heavy rain. The front will be slow moving, thus leading to slow moving and back-building/training storms. The rains should end by late tonight, and Tue will feature clouds, sun and slight chance for a shower or storm in the afternoon.
Updated details for Mon - Tue:
Monday: 82. Becoming partly sunny. Warmer and more humid. Thunderstorms developing mid-afternoon through the late evening. Locally strong winds and heavy rain.
Tuesday: 80. Sun and clouds. Chance for a shower or storm. Less humid.
Rest of the forecast for rest of the week looks good for now.
Well it was much cooler this past week, but no one that I know is complaining about the very beneficial rainfall we received. Our lawn was starting to turn brown 2 1/2 weeks ago. But now? After 5” of rain it looks like early spring: lush and green. So has the dry pattern ended? Or did it just take a break? Here are my thoughts:
1. Although very beneficial, the rains Sun-Tue under-performed based upon projections. New England was thought to get 3-5” fairly widespread … it didn’t happen. For most it was 1-3”, (see map above. yellow = 2" and orange/red = 4") which is still very good. But this set up had flood potential written all over it, and it didn’t do it except in localized areas.
2. A slow moving pattern has been very beneficial, and could help break what was a building dry summer pattern, however, I do see much warmer and drier weather beginning to emerge this weekend, and for most of next week.
3. It’s raining and relatively cool in the desert SW. IN Phoenix yesterday, for the first time in recorded history it rained. When the SW is wet and cool, it means a trough in the west, and building ridge in the east … sounds a lot like much of May to me. And sure enough, hotter and drier weather will be returning this week.
Getting back to the next 7 days:
1. Mostly sunny and dry over the weekend with seasonal temps.
2. Mon – Mon Night. Showers and storms likely. Some could be severe.
3. Moderating temps Wed-Sun with sun and clouds.
4. Chance for a shower/storm Thu and over the weekend with weak fronts.
5. We very well could be dry for at least a week after Mon’s rains.
Saturday: 77. Sun and clouds.
Sunday: 76. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Monday: 80. Partial sunshine late morning through afternoon. Showers/storms likely. Locally heavy rain late and overnight.
Tuesday: 79. Partly to mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Wednesday: 83. Partly to mostly sunny.
Thursday: 85. Partly to mostly sunny. Warm.
Friday: 87. Mostly sunny. Warmer. More humid.
Saturday-Sunday: 88. Mostly sunny. Humid. Slight chance of a shower/storm.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.