Moving on into Summer

This is my expectation for the summer months of June, July, August: 

Episodes of heat may outweigh the times of cool. As we have seen in the spring, the months started out cool, but the warmer weather returned and in the case of May the heat of 5 days took away a large chunk of the cool from the earlier 20 days.  

I also expect it to be a drier summer. Caveat: Due to some potentially active tropics and moisture from any storm or remnants of a storm, we may end up wetter than average in total precipitation, but the way it falls could be 4-5” in one tropical rainstorm so we end the summer 1” above average. That makes a statistically wetter than average summer, but the rest of summer was 3-4” below average, which makes for some drier conditions.

The warmest month looks to be August and that warmth may extend well into September as well.  

June Temps: average              July Temps: Above avg.           Aug Temps: Well above avg.
June Rain: average                 July Rain: Average                  Aug Rain: Below avg.

The Memorial Day forecast update turned out pretty well, but it was not an easy one.  Even the computers were abysmal at best, esp. our good ole American models. Below is an example of predicted rainfall made at 8 pm Sun (when rain began) and what actually fell. That 12 hour forecast was horrendous! The only 1” plus area on the model was extreme SE NJ. But Mon morning there were flood advisories all over Northern NJ and into NYC with reports of 3” of rain or higher coming in. A supposed great model designed for short term forecasts cannot even get close to being accurate on a less than 12 hour forecast. Terrible.

The human forecasts were much better. Which meant taking the models and casting it out the window: junk.
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Now, we turn toward a mild week, but cooler. It turns less humid and pleasantly warm the today through Thu before unsettled weather returns for Fri, sunshine Sat and possible some heavy rain Sun – Mon.  

The pattern is shifting again. We will be returning to a general trough in the east and a ridge in the west for a short time. This will mean cooler to perhaps much cooler weather over the next 10 days. It also will feature several chances for showers and thunderstorms.

Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Easing humidity: Drier air will work in over the next few days.
2. Beautiful Weather: Tue – Thu. Mostly sunny. Temps around 80 all three days.
3. Tropical Troubles: Tropical Depression Bonnie or what is left of her will linger along the Carolina coastline through midweek. This will make for wet and cloudy conditions up through southern NJ, but well away from us.  
4. Wet Weather Returns: Thu night-Fri, then Sun-Mon. Thu night - Friday is just a typical summer frontal passage with shower or thunderstorm. Sun – Mon looks quite wet. Could be some heavy rain with this.  

 
Details:

Tuesday: 83. Partly to mostly sunny. Less humid.

Wednesday: 81. Partly to mostly sunny.     

Thursday: 79. Mostly sunny.

Friday: 78. Sun and clouds. Chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: 82. Mostly sunny.            

Sunday: 75. Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms likely. Humid.

Monday: 75. Mostly cloudy. Showers and thunderstorms ending early. Less humid.