Moving On

Today’s Discussion:

Well, one storm down. A little snow, a little ice, and a little rain. Typical northern Mid-Atlantic December winter storm. A have a feeling these types of storms will be common this winter. So get ready for “change-able” weather.

My analysis of the storm is above. Excluding he snow part, it went well regarding track, secondary-development, total precipitation, change-over, all except for the snow. Too many hours without anything falling from the sky doomed that part. Will try to learn from it.  Forecasting is very humbling.

Now, there are some changes to the going forecast as we head into the middle of December.

1. Weather system for Tues Night. This was originally thought to be for Wed, but will be moved up to late Tue and Tue night. It does not appear to be a big system, but as I’ve said before “watch out for the little guy”. Watch out because many are focusing on #’s 2,3 and 4 and are kind of ignoring #1. This one should bring light snow. No ice. No rain.  
2. Arctic Plunge: Arctic air begins pouring in Wed, and peaks on Thu. Temperatures will be lowered for Wed – Fri due to this very cold air. Highs on Thu and Fri will top out around 20 or lower.
3. Squalls: With the Polar Vortex passing just off to our NE on Thu, the atmosphere may become rather unstable, esp. considering the very cold air and the very warm Great Lakes. Lake Effect is likely to be very impressive, and some individual squalls, or broken lines of squalls may move through. Any squall will be able to put down a quick 1-2” of fluffy snow. Cannot say where they will occur, just that they are likely to occur.
4. Weekend Mess: Saturday looks to be a messy day. Take last night and multiply it by a factor of 3 or more. A large storm looks to take shape in the central states and move E-NE toward us. We will have snow, ice and then rain. Sunday looks damp to start, but then getting colder again.

Other than that, a very calm benign week of winter weather for Central PA.