Morning Thoughts

Two images. Older on the left. Most recent on right. 

• Number 1 (blue) is the forecast for the same energy valid at the same time on both images. Notice the most recent model run (right) has it centered over KS and OK not NM. This impacts Number 2 (red). 
• Number 2 is then further south and tilted more SE in the most recent, versus the older run. 
• I am still thinking that Number 1 will end up being further east than currently forecast (models make this mistake due to a kind of "feedback error.") If that happens, number 2 is also further south and west and tilled even further SE. 

What's the big deal?  It leads to a stronger coastal low that is further north and the precipitation shield is better developed. Right now the modeling would have a close call but a miss for our area. However, last night there was a shift NW over-all. I expect a little more shifting today and even Thu. This is also why more forecasts say chance snow/rain this morning, and not just snow/rain showers like yesterday. 

Stay tuned.