More Winter To Come

Post Storm Comment: I should not have been so pessimistic early yesterday. There was touch of freezing rain at 7 am, depressing me initially, but it quickly reverted to sleet and stayed sleet for most of the day. With reports to the NWS from our area, and my own measurement, the forecast for 3” did verify (snow and sleet combined) but 5” was too much. A 2-4” forecast would have been perfect. So, over-all my forecast wasn’t too bad.

Sun and clouds today, with a couple heavy snow showers. The forecast for tomorrow is looking good.

Some more significant adjustments to Fri and beyond are needed, however.

If you recall from an earlier discussion, I spoke of a possible “twist” to the forecast. It is happening. Instead of a bundling of energy and giving us a strong rainstorm for Fri, we will be getting two systems. One Fri and one Sat, and then as a result we get another Sun/Mon with the largest saved for next Wed (approximately).

1. Fri: This will bring a milder surge of air with temperatures jumping into the upper 40s, even 50 in some places. A few showers are likely, but certainly not a rainstorm. Colder air rushes back in Fri night.
2. Sat: a second system rides the boundary between the leaving warm air and arriving cold air. Will it impact us?  That is the question. If we do get anything, we will likely be on the northern edge with only a little light snow.  
3. Mon: Originally with the strong Fri system scenario this storm was crushed south and was very weak. But that has changed. Moderate snow looks likely. Question: does it stay all snow, or does it mix with sleet/freezing rain?  Probably. Since that has been the habit this winter.
4. Wed: A larger storm looms. This will likely be in the mode of many we’ve had this year: snow, sleet, freezing rain, and rain. As we get closer, we can figure out how much of what. But a mixed bag of winter precipitation is a good starting point.

The calls of “winter is over” were premature. The rest of this month and the first part of March look to be stormy. Some will have snow, some will not. But winter is certainly not over.
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Enjoy.