Saturday was certainly not your typical weather in February day. Severe thunderstorms and even a couple of tornadoes in the state. In many ways, it reminds me of last February. We had a severe bowing line of storms move through with intense rain and wind. I remember it because it was the most impressive thunderstorm we had until late in the summer. I enjoy a good, not severe, thunderstorm, so I was disappointed much of last summer, as I kept recalling the February storm. Now this year, we had more severe storms in February. With potential for more strong storms on Wednesday.
Changes to the going forecast will impact Tue and Wed the most. Previously it appeared that the warm front would get hung up around out area. But now it does appear that it moves well north of us, and considering where the pattern is, it makes sense. So, the unseasonable warmth will surge in for Tue and esp. Wed.
SPC (Storm Prediction Center) has us near the slight chance for severe thunderstorms on Wed. It makes sense due to what happened Sat, and with the clash of air masses that will occur on Wed, however, the upper levels look different to me. On Sat, we had a strong negatively tilted trough come through and helped trigger the suddenly development of widespread thunderstorms. We do not have this coming on Wed. I also doubt there will be a huge amount of sunshine, and showers could be present out ahead of the cold front, thus limiting the destabilization of the atmosphere.
Think of it this way: The front was oriented close to north – south on Saturday. The one of Wed is predicted to be more northeast – southwest. That orientation, even in the summer, is not as favorable for severe. So, I think there could be a few strong to severe, but widespread? I doubt it. Now maybe the forecast will change. At the minimum, expect some showers and a possible thunderstorm late Wed.
Then we shift to colder Thu – Sun and a chance for some light snow Thu night- Fri morning. A possible brief warm up might occur on Mon-Tue then colder yet again as our 4-week cycle continues: Mild – warm – mild – cold. We’re ending warm phase, and entering the mild phase, but will a 7 to 10 day of cold occur starting late this week? Time will tell …
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.