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Faithful Forecast

A Forecast for Southern Schuylkill and Northern Lebanon County  

Mon/tue Storm

12/15/2019

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PictureThis is the first portion of the storm. This will come through, in a weakening state Mon morning.
Forecast:

Snow: 1" maybe 2 in isolated spots.
Ice: up to 1/4" sleet/ice
Rain: up to 1/3" Tues morning.


Mon: Light snow begins by sunrise (if not before) and continues through the morning. Expect about 1" maybe 2" if it holds together well. Snow becomes intermittent or even stops during the afternoon. 

Precipitation redevelops late/evening hours. Light sleet and freezing rain is then likely for much of the overnight. Expect up to 1/3" sleet and a 1/8" ice. 

Precipitation turns to light rain by Tue morning. Possibly ending as a brief period of snow. 

Question Mark: When precipitation redevelops (or becomes steadier and heavier) late, does it cool the atmosphere a couple of degrees meaning heavy snow breaks out for an hour or two late Mon?  We will be close to the ice/snow boundary at this time, and that line will move very slowly.

What could go wrong: 
  • ​Mon morning snow falls apart completely. We get a coating of snow. And then later its just ice. (most likely situation to mess up forecast).  
  • Mon morning is steadier than expected. We get 2-3". (less likely) 
  • Redeveloped precipitation turns to heavy snow for 2-3 hours. We get and extra 2-3" snow. (least likely).

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    Author

    Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.

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