This is the GFS model, which shows a potential blizzard for parts of New England, and yet gives us some lighter snows. It is not as extreme as the Canadian or European. This is the one that almost got lost in all the excitement of Friday night/Saturday’s system. This Manitoba Mauler (love that name … I did not come up with it though. Not sure who did) has had my attention since Tuesday. It’s the kind of system that can become a monster along the east coast of the US.
The Storm will pass to our south, and snow will break out Sunday night and continue on Monday. Several inches are likely. But is this the prelude to the main event?
The storm will redevelop along the NC/VA Capes and strengthen rapidly. Moving north-northeast, then does it loop back NW as the upper level low captures it?
Heavy snow will break out from at least coastal MD, DE to NJ, Eastern NY and the southern 2/3 of New England. This storm will be historic for many of those areas esp. from Central NJ north and east of there.
For us, it could stay far enough east and not impact us except for wind and some light snow. No big deal, or it could loop NW and heavy snow surges west into our area for a time late Monday into Tue giving us several more inches of snow. At this time, it is too difficult to judge which option is correct. Does the storm get pulled NW by Cape May or Cape Cod?
The difference for NYC, New England, eastern NY, and northern NJ is pretty meaningless. For us it is crucial. A small shift will make the difference from a 16” snow to basic 4” snow.
I will post an update this afternoon with what amounts to a better feel on this time.
Until then, snow will arrive tonight, and continue tomorrow. Expect a good 4-6” snow by 10 pm Monday night.
The Storm will pass to our south, and snow will break out Sunday night and continue on Monday. Several inches are likely. But is this the prelude to the main event?
The storm will redevelop along the NC/VA Capes and strengthen rapidly. Moving north-northeast, then does it loop back NW as the upper level low captures it?
Heavy snow will break out from at least coastal MD, DE to NJ, Eastern NY and the southern 2/3 of New England. This storm will be historic for many of those areas esp. from Central NJ north and east of there.
For us, it could stay far enough east and not impact us except for wind and some light snow. No big deal, or it could loop NW and heavy snow surges west into our area for a time late Monday into Tue giving us several more inches of snow. At this time, it is too difficult to judge which option is correct. Does the storm get pulled NW by Cape May or Cape Cod?
The difference for NYC, New England, eastern NY, and northern NJ is pretty meaningless. For us it is crucial. A small shift will make the difference from a 16” snow to basic 4” snow.
I will post an update this afternoon with what amounts to a better feel on this time.
Until then, snow will arrive tonight, and continue tomorrow. Expect a good 4-6” snow by 10 pm Monday night.
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