Discussion:
Sorry for no post yesterday … but there was no time. A very good day serving God … despite the fact that this is now day 12 of no real sunshine … but the sun is trying really hard this afternoon!
Today’s post is long because I was waiting for more info on the mid week Nor’easter. It would seem that a big storm would be easy to forecast right? Well, yes and no.
Yes, forecasting a big storm is fairly easy. Every piece of guidance, models, etc. shows a storm and it fits the pattern. No question about that.
No, because the track of 100 miles west or east will make a BIG difference for Pine Grove. We will be on the western edge of the storm. From Winchester, VA to State College to Rochester NY west you will get nothing out of this storm. From Philly to NYC and east you will most certainly get the storm. And we sit right in the middle. What do we get, if anything?
Based upon experience the storm will likely not miss us. It should stay close enough to give us about one third (1/3) of an inch of precipitation. It should start as rain, but Wednesday night it but change to wet snow and end Thursday morning. This could give us our first accumulating snow of the year. But I must also consider these factors …
1. Elevation … the ridges will be 2-3 degrees colder than the valleys, meaning snow will stick easier and melt less.
2. Surface temperatures … 36 vs. 32 degrees makes a huge difference in any snow you get as 36 will melt all the snow as it hits the ground, at 32 it will accumulate.
3. Time of day … most will fall at night, meaning no influence from the sun, giving more efficient accumulation of snow
And everyone thinks forecasting is easy … right?
On that note here is my forecast:
Rest of today: gradually increasing breaks of sun … cold … temps hanging around 40.
Tonight: finally clearing out … very cold … lows down to mid 20s
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, but still on the cold side … highs around 43
Tuesday night: mostly clear to start … cold again … temperatures dropping into the upper 20s with more clouds rolling in late
Wednesday: Thickening and lower clouds … NE wind picking up during day … light rain arriving towards late afternoon/evening … cold … highs in the upper 30s
Wednesday night: Steady NE wind … rain changing to wet snow … accumulation 1” – 3” (valleys closer to 1" and ridges closer to 3”).
Thursday: light snow ending … windy and cold … highs in the upper 30s …
Extended notes:
1. Breezy Friday … but milder
2. Big warm up beginning Saturday and lasting into through Tue of the next week …
3. Temperatures will rebound to at least one day into the 60s (Sun –Tue)
4. Heavy rain Wed of next week …
Until Tomorrow.
Sorry for no post yesterday … but there was no time. A very good day serving God … despite the fact that this is now day 12 of no real sunshine … but the sun is trying really hard this afternoon!
Today’s post is long because I was waiting for more info on the mid week Nor’easter. It would seem that a big storm would be easy to forecast right? Well, yes and no.
Yes, forecasting a big storm is fairly easy. Every piece of guidance, models, etc. shows a storm and it fits the pattern. No question about that.
No, because the track of 100 miles west or east will make a BIG difference for Pine Grove. We will be on the western edge of the storm. From Winchester, VA to State College to Rochester NY west you will get nothing out of this storm. From Philly to NYC and east you will most certainly get the storm. And we sit right in the middle. What do we get, if anything?
Based upon experience the storm will likely not miss us. It should stay close enough to give us about one third (1/3) of an inch of precipitation. It should start as rain, but Wednesday night it but change to wet snow and end Thursday morning. This could give us our first accumulating snow of the year. But I must also consider these factors …
1. Elevation … the ridges will be 2-3 degrees colder than the valleys, meaning snow will stick easier and melt less.
2. Surface temperatures … 36 vs. 32 degrees makes a huge difference in any snow you get as 36 will melt all the snow as it hits the ground, at 32 it will accumulate.
3. Time of day … most will fall at night, meaning no influence from the sun, giving more efficient accumulation of snow
And everyone thinks forecasting is easy … right?
On that note here is my forecast:
Rest of today: gradually increasing breaks of sun … cold … temps hanging around 40.
Tonight: finally clearing out … very cold … lows down to mid 20s
Tuesday: Partly to mostly sunny, but still on the cold side … highs around 43
Tuesday night: mostly clear to start … cold again … temperatures dropping into the upper 20s with more clouds rolling in late
Wednesday: Thickening and lower clouds … NE wind picking up during day … light rain arriving towards late afternoon/evening … cold … highs in the upper 30s
Wednesday night: Steady NE wind … rain changing to wet snow … accumulation 1” – 3” (valleys closer to 1" and ridges closer to 3”).
Thursday: light snow ending … windy and cold … highs in the upper 30s …
Extended notes:
1. Breezy Friday … but milder
2. Big warm up beginning Saturday and lasting into through Tue of the next week …
3. Temperatures will rebound to at least one day into the 60s (Sun –Tue)
4. Heavy rain Wed of next week …
Until Tomorrow.
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