Monday Evening

Discussion:  

It was a sunny but rather chilly day. It really isn’t all that terribly cold as our long term average highs should be in the mid 40 for the last few days of November.  It will stay cool this week with tomorrow being the coldest day of the week.

Speaking of tomorrow … this is why my update failed to appear last evening. I didn’t do one because there was nothing to change in my forecast. Today I wanted to see if I needed adjust and fine tune regarding the snow for Tuesday:

1.       Snow will arrive before sunrise

2.       Snow will come down light to moderate at times

3.       The system is weak, and will end by late afternoon

4.       Temperatures will be very cold. Highs only around 34

5.       Accumulations from 2 - 3” with up to 4” on ridges.

The tricky part is that just a little more coordination atmospherically could increase the snow amounts by a couple of inches. Weak systems are the hardest to predict, because they can bring some big surprises. For example … in this storm, if you live in Williamsport although you see some light snow, you may wonder, what’s the big deal? And if you live in D.C. it may rain and again, what’s the big deal?  A 75 mile shift makes a HUGE difference. In big storms, 75 miles either direction you’re all still in the middle of it!  Not the case with this one. We are in the potential sweet spot this time around.

With some snow on the ground, temps could get really cold with some upper teens possible Wed night.

Some warmer air trying to sneak in this weekend, but it will have to fight the cold air. Some snow will likely fall but it should stay to our north. It will not really warm up (talking low to mid 50s) until Mon – Tue next week before another cold front cools us back down. No heat waves in sight as we just settle into a more winter – like pattern as we enter the month of December.  

 

Here is my forecast:  

Tonight: Increasing clouds … some snow arriving late … lows around 30  

Tuesday: snow ... ending in the early afternoon … highs around 34 … accumulation 2 – 3”

Wednesday: clouds and sun … still cold … highs around 39

Wednesday night: clearing … very cold … lows near 20

Thursday: Sun and clouds … highs in the low 40s

Until later …