Monday 12/16 Weather

Good Monday Morning:

Our first snowstorm for our area of the winter season is over, and it behaved as expected on all but one front. The snow was more dense than expected. I thought it would be lighter, making for more depth. The amount of precip was spot on, but the depth a little lower than thought. But now on to the next snowfall.

Tuesday (see map below): This will be a ‘surprise’ snowfall. Not much is being said about it, because it looked really like nothing as a couple days ago. But Alberta Clipper-like systems are small, move quickly, and don’t always have a lot of moisture. So they get overlooked. But they can dump some decent snow in a short amount of time. The snow is always fluffy and light. That is what we should see tomorrow morning as a weak area of low pressure passes right over us. Although only about .15” - .20” of precip is expected, with the fluffy nature of the snow, we should get at last 2” and maybe as high as 4” (esp. ridges). 

Tuesday Map: This weak system will pass right over us for Tuesday. Notice we are near the third dashed blue line (528) and that usually means extra fluffy snow. The snow will end by early afternoon.

After this, it will stay chilly through Thu, with a gradual warm up occurring. Friday appears that it will be mild with some rain showers, as a storm passes well to our north, but I am concerned about the cold air being trapped at the surface so we stay really chilly and raw. Then Sat would be mild, even as a cold front moves through. I know that seems odd, but the front would scour out the old stale cold air, thus leading to a warmer day than the so called “mild” Fri. 

Expect another storm to pass overhead or to our west on Sun/Mon (see map below) bringing quite a bit of rain with it. Snow will fall to our west (Ohio), but what snow we have will likely be disappearing. At this time, I do not expect to see snow on the ground for Christmas, but time will tell. 

I mentioned late last week about ugly cold weather invading the west/central US, well it looks like that cold will hold off somewhat, and dominate Canada for now. Don’t be fooled though, Christmas week will not be “warm” just typically chilly over all.  

Sunday/Monday Map: The red line indicates where some very mild air will be present (and SE of it). It will be pretty close to our area. I expect it to be a little further SE than this map has as the cold arctic air is not easy to push around. But we will be warm enough for rain.

Specifics:

Today: Mostly sunny, some clouds here and there. Cold. High near 25. Increasing clouds tonight (saving us from near zero temps) with some light snow developing very late toward morning.  Low near 15.

Tuesday: Snow in the morning giving us 2-3” with locally higher amounts. Flurries in the afternoon. High: 31. Low: 18

Wednesday: Mostly sunny, chilly. High: 30, low: 18

Thursday: Sun and clouds, milder. High: 39. Clouds increasing in the afternoon. Low: 33

Friday: Cloudy, with some showers in the afternoon, evening. Raw and chilly. High: 43 Low: 40

Saturday: Decreasing clouds. Breezy and milder. High: 48 Clouds increasing again at night Low: 38

Sunday:  Cloudy with rain, especially in the afternoon and into the night. (Some very mild air will be just to our south with highs in the 60s for Baltimore and Washington D.C. I do not expect us to be that warm at this time). High: 50 Low: 43

Hint for Christmas Week: A chilly week for Christmas, but not really that cold. I do not foresee any big storms until the weekend of the 27-28. A front should pass through on Christmas Day/Night bringing a few rain/snow showers. This front should stall to our south and a storm may try to move up along it to our south providing wintry weather the weekend after Christmas. But this is about 2 weeks out. It something to watch.  See map below.

Weekend of the 27/28 Map: This is just to give an idea for what I am looking at; it is not a exact forecast. I am looking at a system to move out of the western Gulf and track off the Mid-Atlantic coast near that weekend. This is similar to what has happened already twice this early winter (since Thanksgiving). So why not again? Weather does tend to repeat itself in a general sense.