The first part of this title is etched in stone, however, the second half is a little more of a question.
First today: Partly sunny, breezy and warm. A cold front will more though today, and cooler air will slowly filter in on Thursday. Late Thu into Friday a secondary front will move south across the area, bringing in much colder air for the weekend.
Second, the weekend: A big storm will form for Sunday. This storm will be near the east coast. But how close? That is the biggest question. Right now, if you took the models verbatim, including the “ensembles,” the storm would be just too far east. BUT, when was the last time we had a major storm and the models were not too far east 4 to 5 days prior to event? See gallery above for examples. This applies to major storms, not small weak ones.
I cannot think of one recently. All major storms that we have had (major storms = greater than 1” of precipitation) were all forecast too far to the east 4 to 5 days prior to event. Of course this storm could be different, however I doubt it. I fully expect the storm to track closer to the coast for Sun. This leads to challenges for precipitation. At this time, I will leave it as I had previously: Rain with snow to the west and north.
I’ll fine tune and give details later Friday.
Points for Next 7 Days:
Thursday: 60. Becoming mostly cloudy. Chance for showers.
Friday: 51. Partly to mostly cloudy. Chance of a shower or two. Breezy.
Saturday: 50. Sunshine with more clouds in the afternoon.
Sunday: 40. Cloudy. Rain developing. Possibly heavy at times. Raw and chilly. Breezy.
Monday: 45. Clearing. Sun and clouds. Breezy.
Tuesday: 49. Sun and clouds. Seasonal temps.
Wednesday: 57. Clouds and sun. Possible shower. Milder.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.