- Surface temps: If your temp outside your door is 32 or below, any snow that falls will accumulate pretty well and add up. If you temp is 33 or higher, the snow that falls will accumulate, but it will melt some and pack down.
- Dynamics of system: This storm will have to produce its own cold air in the upper levels of the atmosphere. It will do it. But where that cold air develops and when it develops is tricky.
- Main surge of precip comes through Tue-Tue eve. Then upper level low takes over. Where that sits, will effect how much snow we get. Upper level lows that strengthen and stall can produce lots of snow in localized areas. This upper low will do this. But again where?
Points 2 and 3 are the key and right now any snow fall projections by ANYONE is a guess at best. But you can bank on this: Higher elevations will do much better than the valleys.
More details tomorrow as the picture becomes clear.
This is not really a "complex" storm. It is a classic Nor'Easter with strong winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and heavy snow. The only thing that is tough is the temperatures. The challenge is this: A difference of 2-3 degrees at different levels of the atmosphere is all that stands between getting a heavy rainstorm or a heavy snowstorm for us. And 36 hours before, it is impossible to definitively know what the temps will be exactly.