Major Coastal Low Coming: But What about Snow?

 We had our first real snow, that is it covered the ground and measured 1" (at my house in the valley). So it can snow!

Now we move on to the big debate for the weekend. I wrote the following on Monday:            
               
“The big question is whether this secondary storm will become the primary storm.”

What is becoming apparent is that the coastal storm will be the strongest of the two lows. (See image to left). But when does it become the dominate feature?   That is the question.  As it deepens, the atmosphere will cool to the NW of the storm. Here is my thinking right now:

• There will not be a redevelopment. Two storms start independent of one another. Upper level energies are not phased.
• Northern Plains low moves into Great Lakes. Eastern Low up the coast. When will energies phase or “combine” to work together rather than separate? This is the number 1 question.

In conclusion, the storm track is wonderful. The precipitation looks good. The fly in the ointment for a big snow is the Northern Plains low (result of upper low in eastern Canada being in 2 pieces), as it acts to hold back the cold air. If we do not get a big snow, trust me there will be other opportunities: See Sun night.

The Sunday/Sunday night system has more going for it: Cold air, moisture, and possibly earlier phasing of energies, giving us one storm, not two. More details by Fri morning if warranted.
 
My Weather Points for the Next 7 Days:   

1.     Cold: Typical winter cold through Thursday with highs mostly in the 20s to low 30s by Thu. Cold returning Sunday into next week.
2.      Moderating Temps: Temps will warm some Fri into Saturday. Highs mainly in the mid to upper 30s.    
3.     Snow: Rain could change to wet snow Sat. “Surprise” snow Sunday night as additional energy surges up coast?  Again, watch out for the “little guy”. You the one that is overlooked most often. Wouldn't it be ironic if this second ignored system brought more snow than that the attention grabbing first system?  Maybe some light snow Wed/Thu then a bigger storm for the follow weekend.        

Wednesday: 28. Clouds and sun. Flurries. Windy. Cold.     

Thursday: 33. Mix of sun and clouds. Flurries possible. Cold.

Friday:  36. Early sunshine, then increasing clouds. Rain develops overnight.     

Saturday: 37. Cloudy. Rain possibly ending as wet snow.          

Sunday: 35. Cloudy. Snow possibly developing. Winds increasing late.   

Monday: 28. Any light snow ending. Becoming mostly sunny. Windy. Cold.      

Tuesday: 25. Mostly sunny. Cold.    

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