Low Confidence Forecast

The weekend forecast is one that is of low confidence. Whenever you deal with clusters of showers and thunderstorms that are driven by mid to low level impulses of energy, it is hard to predict where they will go. 

Take for example today. A cluster developed over the high plains and the southern end of it dove south into OK and then even into north TX. This was poorly forecast and was a basic miss 24 hours ago by the models. In cases like this, models are only good at showing the potential, but the placement of the heaviest rain is often poor. 

Sometimes these clusters maintain themselves all day long. Other times they die out by noon. It appears that a potential cluster will be impacting our area this weekend, perhaps two, or perhaps none. 

Saturday:  The first potential cluster should impact our those living SW of a line from Erie to Philly. That puts us on the edge.  I think some showers are likely, but the heaviest should stay to our S and SW. Like it has been lately. 

Sunday: The potential is there for another push of energy that induces more showers and storms, and if they one is really there, then it would track further north.  I am not convinced of this one to be honest. 

So for the weekend ... it is likely to have some wetness on Saturday. But not a wash out. A chance for some wetness on Sunday, but likely not. And it could end up dry the whole weekend but Pittsburgh and Baltimore get 2-4". 

Weather is rarely easy. Enjoy it anyway.