Looking for Snow?
Do you like snow? Or do you hate snow?
Personally I love it. Why? Well, I grew up with lots of snow most winters (over 100" per winter. One year just shy of 200"!) but also because it reminds me of what God has done for me in His Son Jesus. He has covered my sin and death (brown dead ground) with His righteousness (snow).
The coming days will be cold and potentially stormy for the foreseeable future. A very different December than we've had over the last few years is shaping up.
Our first snow threat is Saturday. I know most forecasts say NOTHING about snow. But its not that straightforward as you will see below.
Blue Circle: Arctic energy that will steer potential storm.
Green Circle: Southern energy that will induce potential storm and supply moisture.
Forecast Challenge: Storm or no storm for Saturday?
Problem: The two pieces of energy and how models handle them. They notoriously drag the energy in the SW US to slowly. And the data we have on the northern arctic energy is very limited due to its location. So this presents some uncertainty.
Small differences in placement and timing lead to very different results. See maps of UKMET and GFS below.
It is never easy knowing which forecast is the correct forecast. I suspect both the UKMET (right image giving a snowstorm) and the GFS (left image with partly sunny skies) are the extremes.
I would hesitate to predict Sat as a dry and partly sunny day. I would also hesitate to call for 6” of snow. But some light snow? Some light accumulation? Yea, a good educated guess at this point.
Next Snow Threat? Definitely Tuesday. Then maybe Thursday?
Temperatures now through next Wednesday: Afternoon highs in the upper 30's to start, then mid 30's Fri/Sat with low 30's Sun - Wed with morning lows in the low to middle 20's until Mon then lows 15-20 degrees. Bundle up! Winter is here.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.