Hermine is well offshore as you can see to the left, and the sinking air on the back side is giving us beautiful weather, however she is moving westward … slowly. And will do so into Tue.
Clouds have reached the Delaware River and are trying to push west. Will they make it here? I suspect in some fashion, but don’t worry. No rain. And the sun will still shine in between the clouds. Over-all we are getting about as nice a Labor Day as you can get.
Hermine will finally give the fish a break by moving away Thursday as a dying cold front tries to move south out of Canada. Doubt it will make it. Another stronger front will move through late Saturday. Both could bring a shower or thunderstorm but don’t cancel any outdoor plans. Neither look very promising for rain. And we are getting dry yet again. The western Atlantic/East Coast Ridge is dominating like I thought. September could wind up being very warm and very, very dry. Hope you like tan colored grass J
Points for Next 7 Days:
Labor Day: 83. Mostly sunny. Beautiful.
Tuesday: 83. Partly to mostly sunny.
Wednesday: 86. Mostly sunny. Warmer.
Thursday: 90. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. Slight chance for a shower or storm.
Friday: 90. Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Humid.
Saturday: 90. Increasing clouds. Hot. Humid. Chance of a shower or storm.
Sunday: 81. Partly to mostly sunny. Less humid.
Monday: 83. Mostly sunny. Beautiful.
The forecast of Hermine battering the coastline severely was incorrect. There has been lots of chatter about how horrible the forecasts were and many weather folks are saying, as an excuse, that the models were all horrible. However, that is not true. The much maligned GFS did a very good job. The photo gallery shows forecast maps from different days but all valid Labor Day morning at 8 am. It is good way to go back and see how a model predicted a certain storm. GFS was not perfect but not bad.
Contrast that with the photo gallery for the European Model. Notice it was all over the place, out to sea, in close to land and well off shore again. This model is what many forecasters followed nearly verbatim. But when it was wrong, then many blamed the models.
This bothers me. And it should bother you too. Take responsibility. Be honest and stop laying blame.
The GFS did a pretty good job, despite the narrative from many that it was wretched. Sorry, but it wasn't. The European did a poor job. But, nearly all forecasts were off, because they followed the European. So it's the computers fault for a bad forecast????
Look, my forecast for Hermine was incorrect. I knew it early Sun morning at 2 am: Clear skies. And who made that forecast? Me. A computer did not make it for me. From this I just want to learn and not repeat the same error in the future.
This is a good lesson for all of us. Take responsibility for your actions/decisions, confess it (repent if need be) and then learn from it.
Have a great Labor Day!
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.