There is some talk about a “much cooler” pattern coming up. To start, one must remember our average high temperatures are in the upper 70s. So 10 degrees cooler than we have been over the last week, and lower humidity would equate to a “much cooler” pattern. I do not see extended cooler than normal temps at all. I see a cool down to average this coming weekend (12-13th), then another warm up into the 80s. This is illustrated by the maps above. They are not a perfect forecast, just a visual representation of what will likely occur over the next 10 days.
I expect a general pattern that puts a trough to our west, and a ridge in the east. However, short lived troughs will move through bringing us a potential for good rains when they do. The coolest air will stay to our west through most of this month and into October.
I also expect that we will see the gradual end to this very dry pattern, as it should grow increasingly wet as we move deeper into fall. But outside of this Thu dry pattern will continue through middle of next week.
But we have enough weather to deal with this week, so let’s focus on it:
1. Heat: Temps make a run for 90 today, then exceed 90 on Tue – Wed. With enough sun, Thu could also be hot, but clouds and some rain will likely keep a lid on temps.
2. Humidity: It returns to high levels this week, esp. Wed – Thu.
3. Rain: Best chance for rain is Thu with the passage of a significant, yet slow moving system. There are indications of widespread substantial rain (1” or more). Thunderstorms are a given. Probably not severe, just heavy rains, gusty winds and lightning. It may also shower on Saturday with trough axis moving through.
4. Dry Ground: For many we will be nearing 3 weeks of no substantial rain by Thu. The surface is very dry. Just look at the grass … drying out, limp. Remember evaporation is a cooling process, so with no moisture to evaporate, the sun’s energy goes into heating the ground, leading to warmer temps. Ex: This past Sat and Sun were warmer than many forecasts. Why? Dry ground.
Monday: 90. Mostly sunny. Hot.
Tuesday: 92. Mostly sunny. Hot. More Humid.
Wednesday: 92. Mostly sunny. Hot. Humid.
Thursday: 83. Mostly cloudy. Showers/storms likely.
Friday: 79. Mostly cloudy. Showers possible early. Becoming much cooler and less humid.
Saturday: 77. Partly to mostly sunny. Less humid. Shower/storm possible in afternoon.
Sunday: 77. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.