Just Look at What is Going On! - Updated 7 pm Sat

Update #3: 


Some minor tweaks for "Bill". 

1. Rains from Bill will increase this evening and torrential downpours are possible esp. in any thunderstorms.
2. Flash flooding (small streams, low lying area that usually flood, and streets) is likely in any of these torrential downpours. 
3. Rains will end before sunrise!   Making for a much better Father's Day ... although very damp to start. 
4. Total rain still looks around 2" with localized amounts to 4".  

Delaying the full forecast update due to "Bill". 

Update #2: 

If it were not for the remnants of Tropical Storm Bill, this forecast would be easy. But alas Bill is coming and it makes it challenging, but now I feel confident in what to expect. 


1) Bill will move from the central Mississippi to the Central NJ coast line via just south of the Mason Dixon line. 
2) Showers and thunderstorms with heavy downpours will precede the storm Sat afternoon.  High 77. Becoming very humid. 
3) Storm will intensify after it crosses the Appalachian Mountains. This will make for heavy flooding rain Sat night after 11 pm. 

3) Heaviest rain will be from our area on south. We will be on the northern edge of the heaviest rain. Expect 2" with up to 4" locally esp. towards Lancaster and Reading on east. 
4) Rain will end by 9 am Sunday, probably even before. 
5) Becoming partly sunny during the afternoon. Hot and very humid. High 87. 
6) New round of showers and storms will pass through Sun evening with heavy downpours. 


Full update for Tomorrow for the 7 day forecast. Stay dry.   

Update #1: 


This is a tough pattern to predict the details and the models have stunk for the most part. Yesterday, too many clouds ... but the clearing took place just, and I mean just to our west. In Annville the sun did come out in the late afternoon ... that is not very far away from us. So the temp forecast was way off, but areas west of us did make it to 80 or higher. 

For today, the front is slow, and will make it through early today. No rain with it. Increasing sunshine with lowering humidity too, esp. after midday. Really nice tonight: 50s! 

Good news for Father's Day. Most of the rain from Tropical storm Bill will be over by 9 am Sunday. The worst will be during the overnight Sat into Sun.  Some other points on Bill (latest radar below): 

1. Lots of tropical moisture.  Heavy rain likely. 2-3" likely, with locally up to 4"
2. Models generally underplaying Bill. Thus I am going with more rain than most forecasts right now. 
3. Rain should end by 9 am Sunday. Rest of day humid, with partial sunshine. Slight chance of late day shower/storm. But mainly dry. 

Wet pattern continues with frequent chances for rain next week.  (Yea, so much for dry summer ... man, that was one bad forecast on my part. But it is warm!) 

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When you enter a pattern where the computers really struggle to even get a 6 hour forecast right ... you throw them out and look at what is going on and go the old fashioned route ... use the brain God has given you. 


Don't get me wrong, often I see what is going on and then see how the models look for accuracy at that time. If they nailed it ... use them since their starting point is correct ... but if no where near reality ... their forecast will also be way off. So today again, their starting points are off ... so I look at what is going on right now. 


This is to say that some tough forecasting is ahead over the next week.  Over-all it will be warm to  very warm. Some days very humid, while others much nicer. Rain is forecast also. Potentially quite a bit as the map above from the NWS shows, esp. over Father’s Day. Here are the forecast points for the next 7 days:

1.      Showers or rain with embedded thunderstorms tonight?  Different guidance says different things. So we look at what is going on right now. Showers and storms are firing in central Indiana and will move basically east therefore I would expect showers with some heavier rain possible. Thunderstorms will be primarily south of us, but there could be some rumbles overnight.  

2.     Thunderstorms Thu night with cold front?  Set up looks a lot like Tues (yesterday) so scattered showers/storms but nothing out of the ordinary for summer. Some will stay dry.

3.      Much cooler Air for Friday and Saturday. Friday night temps dip into the 50s!  Open the windows and air out the house. Refreshing.

4.      Remnants of Tropical Storm Bill will pass through our area Late Saturday night and first half of Father’s Day. Some rain will be heavy. It will be very humid and tropical Sunday.

5.      Cold Front Monday brings drier air again but still warm.

6.      Heat ridge tries to build later Mon – Thu … but with limited success into our area. Very hot across the south land of the US, but just warm to very warm in our area.

Specifics:

Wednesday Night: 65. Cloudy with numerous showers esp. over night. More humid.  

Thursday: 80. Increasing sunshine, more humid. Chance of shower/storm esp. after dark with cold front.   

Friday: 82. Becoming mostly sunny. More pleasant. Very refreshing evening and overnight.   

Saturday: 78. Sunny to start. Clouds rolling in very late. Heavy rain developing toward sunrise.    

Sunday: 78. Mostly cloudy. Tropical rains from remnants of Bill ending by early afternoon. Very humid. Some sun possible in the afternoon.    

Monday: 86. Partial sunshine. Humid with shower/storm possible.     

Tuesday: 84. Mostly sunny. Less humid. 

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