July 25th, 2014

Weather for this weekend is rather confusing to say the least ... that is if you listen to different forecasters. Some say "good," others say "severe storms" and both are for our area. So which is it?  The pics below will explain the "confusion" (IMHO): 

This is forecast for Sunday morning. Notice that there are no yellow patches near us at all. Some weak energy is actually passing over us but no big blobs except in the Great Lakes. Now look at this pic: 

This is also a forecast for Sun morning. But it has a yellow blob over southern Ohio. It is small, but it is significant. Because this blob will focus the showers/storms to our south and keep us mainly dry. This is where the "good" forecasts are coming from. This is older model run. The one above is the newer run. 

The problem here is that we are talking about small features until the main trough/front comes through on Monday. Models do not handle them well. One subtle difference here or there makes a big change in the weather on the ground. 

What forecasters need to do is look at the set up and use the general model date, but throw out the specific details for a specific location forecast. With a strong trough digging to our west, our flow will back around and turn from the NW to the W and SW. This will result in an energy in the atmosphere to travel more W to E. It seems unlikely that it will go SE of our area. 

This should result in a chance for some showers/thunderstorm in the morning on Sun, but more likely late afternoon/evening and into the overnight. There could a couple rounds of storms. Some could bring hail, strong winds and of course heavy rain and lightning. 

Conclusion: Saturday should be good. Maybe a stray shower ... but very unlikely. Sunday will be cloudy to start with some rain possible, then at least some partial clearing, becoming hot, humid with some more storms erupting in the afternoon to our west and then moving east late. Highs at least to 86, with enough sun to 90. 

Keep an eye to the sky on Sunday. Then prepare for some really refreshing air for most of next week.