July 20th, 2015
Great VBS …. Great Service Sunday … Great nights rest last night. Now what is in store this week? It was hot, hot, hot yesterday. Hottest day so far this summer. Humidity was very oppressive too. Will it continue? Great question, as are some others for this week.
Questions for Forecast:
1. Will there be more storms Mon night than is projected, just like there was a lot more Sat and Sun nights as well?
2. How long will the heat and humidity last? When the cooler and drier air arrives, will it bring a round of strong storms with it on Tue?
3. Modelling has been abysmal when it comes to capturing the thunderstorm potential in this pattern (Way underdone for Sat and Sun night for much of central PA which got 1-3"). So ... will the wave in the Midwest be pushed south of our area Tue or will it be further north? This leads to …
4. Will Tue to cooler due to more clouds from wave in the Midwest, or more sunshine and hotter due to less clouds as wave is south? Tough call.
5. How long will the cooler, drier air last? Through next weekend?
6. Will a tropical system develop near the SE coast, and it so, will it head out to sea? Or north along the coast?
As you can see Mon Night – Tuesday is the hardest part of the forecast. Last night, models showed dry for us ... now this morning ... not so dry with heavy rains/storms just to our south. Hmmmm.
Wed – Sat is pretty simple and easy. It will be very pleasant too. Great sleeping at night. Warm but comfy days with lots of sunshine. Just great July weather. And possibility the driest week we have had since the first half of May! (Depending on Tue of course).
Monday: 90. Partly to mostly sunny. Hot. Humid. Slight chance late day and/or overnight storm.
Tuesday: 87. Showers and storms likely in the afternoon, esp. in the counties to our south.
Wednesday: 80. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.
Thursday: 79. Mostly sunny. Very pleasant.
Friday: 81. Sunny. Very pleasant.
Saturday: 86. Mostly sunny. Warmer. Humidity increases slowly.
Sunday: 87. Partly sunny. More humid. Scattered showers/storms possible.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.