Joaquin Coming For a Visit? Updated 10/1 @ 8:00 am

It is becoming clear that the forecast will likely be changing. I like what I have out through Sat. But Sunday and Monday will likely change. The reason is this: Major Hurricane Joaquin will likely take one of two paths. The early hook into SC/NC (less likely) or parallel the coast and sideswipe New England at worst (most likely). This means drier and brighter skies for us are possible Sun and Mon. Will make update later this evening as I get to see what Joaquin is doing. 

Please pray for the folks in the Bahamas. This is a very devastating storm for them. Long duration. A lot fo damage will occur. 

First picture is of Hurricane Joaquin this morning. Notice the rounded look to it, indicating a favorable environment for rapid development. The second is the latest NHC track for the Hurricane. Notice the bed toward the east coast. The third is the GFS model forecast taking the Hurricane inland near Cape Hatteras NC. This is only one idea. I think if Hurricane Joaquin makes landfall it will be further north. Details below: 

All weather eyes are going to be focused on the east coast through Sunday as a big upper trough, heavy rain, and a likely major Hurricane Joaquin take aim for the coast. The exact details are sketchy at best, but the big picture is becoming clearer. 

1. Hurricane Capture or Not?  This is a difficult question. Most of the models say yes, Joaquin will be pulled left over and into the Mid-Atlantic States sometime this weekend. However, the uncertainty is that the most reliable and accurate does not. Also, the ensembles of the models are sprayed like buckshot. In other words, lots of uncertainty.
2. Does it Matter?  Yes: No real wind damage. Less beach erosion and coastal flooding. Less really extreme amount of rain. 
3. Does it Matter?  No: Coastal low still likely to develop even if Joaquin does escape east. This will still have lots of moisture to bring lots of heavy rain to many areas from SC/NC to CT. Flooding is a real issue for NC and VA. Rivers are high, esp. near the mountains. 
4. Time Period if Joaquin Hits: Sunday - Monday. See NHC map above. 
5. Rain: Cold front moving through today, will stall just off shore and will then push back west, bringing a return to rain Fri into very early Sat. 
6. Temperatures: Very cool starting Thu with highs in near 60 for Thu, Fri and Sat.
7. Flooding Potential: Highly dependent on track of Joaquin. No hurricane, then low. 
8. Winds: Again dependent on track of Hurricane. 

My Daily Forecast Expectations:

1. Wednesday: 74. Cloudy. Shower possible. Turning cooler. 
2. Thursday: 59. Cloudy. Showers possible in afternoon and over night. 
3. Friday: 58. Periods of rain. Some could be heavy. 
4. Saturday: 60. Any rain ending. Cloudy. NE breeze. 
5. Sunday: 70. Heavy rain arriving late or overnight. Winds increasing out of east. 
6. Monday: 66. Heavy rain ending. Winds subsiding after strong winds gusts in the morning.