Please pray for the folks in the Bahamas. This is a very devastating storm for them. Long duration. A lot fo damage will occur.
- Hurricane Capture or Not? This is a difficult question. Most of the models say yes, Joaquin will be pulled left over and into the Mid-Atlantic States sometime this weekend. However, the uncertainty is that the most reliable and accurate does not. Also, the ensembles of the models are sprayed like buckshot. In other words, lots of uncertainty.
- Does it Matter? Yes: No real wind damage. Less beach erosion and coastal flooding. Less really extreme amount of rain.
- Does it Matter? No: Coastal low still likely to develop even if Joaquin does escape east. This will still have lots of moisture to bring lots of heavy rain to many areas from SC/NC to CT. Flooding is a real issue for NC and VA. Rivers are high, esp. near the mountains.
- Time Period if Joaquin Hits: Sunday - Monday. See NHC map above.
- Rain: Cold front moving through today, will stall just off shore and will then push back west, bringing a return to rain Fri into very early Sat.
- Temperatures: Very cool starting Thu with highs in near 60 for Thu, Fri and Sat.
- Flooding Potential: Highly dependent on track of Joaquin. No hurricane, then low.
- Winds: Again dependent on track of Hurricane.
My Daily Forecast Expectations:
- Wednesday: 74. Cloudy. Shower possible. Turning cooler.
- Thursday: 59. Cloudy. Showers possible in afternoon and over night.
- Friday: 58. Periods of rain. Some could be heavy.
- Saturday: 60. Any rain ending. Cloudy. NE breeze.
- Sunday: 70. Heavy rain arriving late or overnight. Winds increasing out of east.
- Monday: 66. Heavy rain ending. Winds subsiding after strong winds gusts in the morning.