January Thaw Here we Come ...

Yes, a Thaw is coming. But we have a little chilly weather and some light snow/ice and some heavy rain to get through first. 

Discussion:

One more cold/chilly weekend and start to next week, before a thaw takes over for about 5-7 days. Yesterday was very nice. A pleasant break from the cold of the previous days.  Now cooler today, and a little snow tomorrow.

If you are looking for winter weather (i.e. snow) then you’ll have to wait another 10-14 days. The pattern will be undergoing some shifting. So far this winter a big blocking high pressure has been present much of the time over or just west of Alaska with an area of low pressure to the south or southeast of it. Now, a large trough is developing south of Alaska making the state very cold. This change should continue to the east. This should lead to a ridge of some kind along the west coast and a trough of some kind in the central and eastern US as we head to the end of January and into February.

I must say, however, that I am skeptical on any lasting change until we reach late February. The reason is that every time a change has been shown, it lasts for about a week and then it breaks down and returns to the pattern that has dominated this winter. It seems that the harshest winter weather wants to focus on the Northwestern ½ of the nation.

Getting back the upcoming seven days …

• Friday: Cooler but nice with sunshine.
• Saturday: Light snow is likely to develop. Minor accumulations of a coating to a localized 1” is possible. This is a weak system, and one must be wary because there is likely to be some surprises in some areas.
• Sunday: Looks nice. Sun and clouds. Chilly.
• Monday: Chance of some light snow/ice as warm front approaches.
• Tuesday/Wednesday: Chance of heavier rain. Turning rather mild to warm on Wednesday. Again, for Tuesday the cool air will be trapped so our warming will be slower than models would indicate right now. Same theme for much of the winter: cold air gets trapped, warm air surges west of the mountains, and after cold front moves through, we warm up and cooler air is slow to return. Wash, rinse, repeat this on Mon – Wed.
• Thursday: Pleasant and mild.

Enjoy!