It is February! Days are longer! Temps Are Warming! Parade of Storms are Coming!

Storm #1 Monday

Storm #2 late Tue/Wed

Storm #3 Sat/Sun

Page by Esther Lombardi - Groundhog Day - Clipart.com.

Long title, but you get the idea. This is the last full month of winter.  Historical records for winter always refer to Dec-Jan-Feb, unless it is total snow. As we know snow can occur from Oct- Apr around here. But it is February, and tomorrow is Groundhog Day.  I dare say the shadow will be seen giving 6 more weeks of winter.

February Expectation: Plenty of cold will be around for much of the nation, centered in the central states. A ridge in the SE will try to poke up and send some milder air our way, but the cold from Canada will fight it. Yes, I expect us to be in the battle zone of the two.  I expect the following:

1. Temperatures: slightly below normal, not as bad as January. 
2. Precipitation: Above normal (average is about 3”)
3. Snowfall: Well above normal (average is about 13”)

The Pattern this Week: (See Pictures above)

Trough is the west, learning to the east up against the developing ridge in the SE. Very cold weather in the Northern Rockies, Plains and Great Lakes.  Warm weather will be developing in the SE.  

It will be wet from the Rockies SE through the Southern Plains, to the Gulf Coast and up through the Central Plains, Ohio Valley, Mid Atlantic and Northeast.  Some flooding may be an issue in states like Kentucky by the end of the week due to two very heavy rain events.  

One weak storm moves from Texas to NC shore on Sun-Mon, then two stronger storms from Texas to Ohio, redeveloping off the NJ/Long Island shore; the first Tue-Wed, the second being Sat-Sun.

Taking one at a time:

Storm #1: The weakest. This is the “second wave” I was speaking of earlier this week. It will likely come further north and give us snow for Monday. Do not be surprised to see a couple inches around here and up to 6” at the Mason Dixon line. Behind this somewhat colder air comes in and sets the stage for the next storm.

Storm #2: Perhaps the strongest of the three. This storm will ride up west of the mountains. This means we are on the warm side of the storm. Warm air will overrun the cold air at the surface causing snow to break out Tue evening, and into the first part of the overnight. The cold air is supported by a high pressure system to the north, so the cold won’t leave anytime soon. Gradually the snow will turn to sleet/freezing rain then plain rain well after midnight. It will be a mess (2” snow; coating of ice on everything, then cold, nasty rain).  Even colder air will follow this storm, freezing everything up into a thin glacier.

Storm #3: This will come over the weekend. It seems that although forecasts want it to go further south, I doubt it. The winter storm track has been for weaker systems south and stronger systems west of us. Why argue with persistence?  Weather does repeat itself. So I am going for a repeat of the Tue-Wed storm for Sat-Sun. The only difference is a stronger high pressure will be to our north supporting an even colder air mass. So that might make for a little more snow, ice and less rain.  

Specifics:

Today: Mostly cloudy, with some breaks of sunshine. Milder. Temps staying mild through the night. Rain showers possible late at night. High: 41. Low: 35

Sunday: Breezy, a shower possible. Much milder. Some peeks of sun. High: 44. low: 32.

Monday: Snow. Moderate at times until mid afternoon. Expect about 2-3.” Colder. High: 33. Low: 18.

Tuesday: Mostly sunny early, then thickening clouds with snow arriving after dark. Snow will be heavy for a short time, then changing to sleet and freezing rain, becoming all rain by early morning hours. High: 34. Low: 28 but rising overnight.

Wednesday: Rain ending in the morning. Some partial sun possible after midday. High: 40. Low: 25.

Thursday: Much colder. Mostly sunny, breezy. High: 28. Low: 12.

Friday: Sunny and cold. High: 25. Low: 10.

Saturday: Clouds increasing. Snow arriving late. High: 28. Low: 26, with rising temps over night into Sunday morning.

Sunday: Rain/freezing rain becoming all rain before ending by early afternoon. Turning much colder again overnight. High: 36. Low: 18.   

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