Is a Drought Coming?

Well, according to the map above for out area, and others for the whole US, there are areas that are in or are approaching short term moderate drought, like in NW NJ and eastern New England. In these areas lawns would be turning crispy golden brown and crops would be showing stress and strain from the dryness. It is not a long term drought and it is expanding slowly. So, will we get into it?

Well, that is a tough call. But I wouldn’t be surprised if we see brown lawns and crops stress increasing over the coming weeks. Yes, some folks got a good rain yesterday, but not everyone did.  It was not widespread.

​A pattern has emerged over the last two months concerning rainfall. There have been ample opportunities, however, many times it has under performed. I am not talking about one or two events, but most events over the last two months have generally been a little less than one might otherwise expect. In contrast think back to 2011 (flood year) it rained a lot more than expected. It seemed every chance led to a downpour. Well, this year it’s falling a little short. Not terrible, but the falling short does add up.

Our next good chance for rain is Mon-Tue. A weakening front will come through very late Mon into Tue. In many ways it reminds of last Tue’s front. A trough led the way early, and then the “real front” passed through later. This can lead to some good rains for some, but a complete miss for others. And yes, it appears this too will move slowly. After this front it will be cooler, but also dry.  

If we do not get some good rains over the next couple of weeks, feedback will begin in earnest as the ground dries out. What I mean is that with a dry ground the suns energy goes into heating the ground, not in evaporating moisture. This leads to higher temps, and a warmer atmosphere, making it harder to rain, and that leads to more sun and the cycle starts over again. We are seeing some of this already in a limited fashion, but if the next two weeks are dry the influence of the dry ground will grow. It will be interesting to see where we go.
 
Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Warm to Hot: Sun – Mon. Upper 80s Sunday and near 90 on Monday.
2. Clouds Wait Until Late: I am going hotter for Monday because the clouds should wait until late in the day, and the rain holds off until late also. Plus, drier ground and a warmer atmosphere means higher temps. Models typically overdo the increasing clouds before a cold front.  
3. Rain Chances Increase: Late Mon – Tue. A slow moving frontal boundary will help pull deep moisture from the south into our area. Locally heavy rainfall possible in any thunderstorms that do occur.
4. Cooling for a Couple: It will cool off for Wed and Thu.
5. Showery Holiday Weekend: Next chance for showers looks like Sat/Sun with much cooler air for the 4th of July.  

 
Details:

Sunday: 88. Sunny. Very warm. 

Monday: 89: Sunny. Hot and more humid.  Chance for showers and thunderstorms late.   

Tuesday: 85. Sun and clouds. Humid. Chance for showers and thunderstorms.  

Wednesday: 80. Mostly sunny. Cooler. Breezy.      

Thursday: 81. Mostly sunny. Pleasant.     

Friday: 83. Mostly sunny. Pleasantly warm.    

Saturday: 83. Increasing clouds. Chance for shower or thunderstorm.

Sunday: 75. Sun and clouds. Breezy. Cooler.

​4th of July: 75. Sunny. Refreshing.                

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