IDA Flood?

The remnants of Hurricane Ida will pass through our area on Wed. It is a very concerning forecast regarding the flood potential. Keeping it simple: 

Concerning: 

1. Track of the system allows for thunderstorms/convective rains to develop and lead to torrential downpours. 
2. Timing allows for those convective rains to develop in afternoon/evening. 
3. Trough interaction allows for tropical moisture to be squeezed out with additional energy from the upper atmosphere.
4. Our ground is wet already. 
5. Topography allows for N to S moving rains to maximize their potential as they are forced up over the E to W laying ridges in our area.  

Helpful: 

1. Speed of the system allows for it to pass through and not slow down or stall. 
2. Streams, creeks, lakes, ponds are not running high or at capacity. 
3. Last widespread rain was on Friday. 

The details: 

1. Rain arrives before sunrise Wed morning. Some could be heavy. 
2. Rain tapers off for short time in late morning/early afternoon. 
3. Rain/storms with torrential downpours develop at 2 pm and tapering to lighter rain by 9 pm. 
4. Light rain until ending by midnight. 
5. Total rain: 4-5" with locally higher amounts possible.
6. Will turn more humid again with temps rising to the lower 70s Wed. 

This is a very concerning forecast. We've seen tropical systems dump a ton of rain on us before over the last 15 years. So we know what they can do. Praying it doesn't do like some have done in the past. 

Once we get through this, the weather looks nice for Labor Day Weekend. Low humidity, sunshine, and maybe a shower on Labor Day itself, but nothing to worry about. 

Full update after Wed's rainstorm.  

Enjoy.