- Yesterday the EURO, UKMET and NAVGEM changed and showed the hurricane missing the cold front and move SE in the Atlantic, never making it to North Carolina at all, thus giving us much less rain.
- Last night all models, except the GGEM (Canadian) did the same. So most weather folks scurried to change their forecasts ... but
- At a very late lunch (now) time all the models are lifting the storm to just south of Cape Hatteras, further north than 12 hours ago.
I have to laugh. The connection between the western trough and the hurricane is tricky. I said this below in earlier posts. Today, there is some subtle slowing of the trough/cold front on the models. This is leading to the further north position on NC coast.
The cold front is being driven by two forces: one is in central Canada, and the other is near the Washington state coast. We do not have a good picture of these atmospheric forces, but will have an improving picture as they move closer to us. So by Thu evening, we should have a much better idea on what may happen regarding the trough/cold front and its impact on Matthew.
Please keep in mind, I never believed we would get the Hurricane into our area, and still don't. I always said it was likely to stay offshore, but moisture from it would flow along and ahead of the cold front. Still think that will happen and the key is the speed of that trough/front.
Full update Thu.
I am going to highlight the points about this storm below (Some were made earlier, but I repeat as a reminder):
- Major Hurricanes with a large circulation have “influence” on the pattern. Actually they don’t as they are a product of the pattern, but let’s not get too technical. Large hurricanes put a lot of heat into the atmosphere, and this can help support a ridge to the east of the storm. This small support may help keep the ridge in the western Atlantic just a little stronger for a little longer this weekend.
- Trough to the west. This is very important. Does it come in shallow, and just bump Matthew to the east? Or does it come in stronger, capturing Matthew and picking him up to move along the east coast?
- The biggest threats are still to the Carolina and SE New England coastlines as I’ve said for about a week now. That has not changed. However, this storm will come very close to the Florida, Georgia, SC and NC coasts. KEY: what direction is storm heading when near the Carolina coasts? More northerly the direction, the more rain for us. The more easterly the path, the less rain for us.
SIDE NOTE: "Model Wars" ... The EURO model is doing well with Matthew, however once past Haiti/Cuba, it has been all over the place. The GFS, while larger in error in the Caribbean, has been steady in showing east coast threat for the past week, which EURO did not show at all until this past Sunday. So it appears that it will be a draw between the “nearly worshiped” model and the “most maligned” model. This is why computers offer "guidance" and forecasters are needed to make the forecast: Computers make mistakes.