Here is the latest of the Matthew saga ...
I have to laugh. The connection between the western trough and the hurricane is tricky. I said this below in earlier posts. Today, there is some subtle slowing of the trough/cold front on the models. This is leading to the further north position on NC coast.
The cold front is being driven by two forces: one is in central Canada, and the other is near the Washington state coast. We do not have a good picture of these atmospheric forces, but will have an improving picture as they move closer to us. So by Thu evening, we should have a much better idea on what may happen regarding the trough/cold front and its impact on Matthew.
Please keep in mind, I never believed we would get the Hurricane into our area, and still don't. I always said it was likely to stay offshore, but moisture from it would flow along and ahead of the cold front. Still think that will happen and the key is the speed of that trough/front.
Full update Thu.
Finally, some sunshine! (That is after the low clouds and fog burn off). And some nice sunshine through the middle of this week. My forecast from Saturday is still looking pretty good. The increase in clouds will occur as deep easterly flow develops late in the week, and then Hurricane Matthew comes a calling.
I am going to highlight the points about this storm below (Some were made earlier, but I repeat as a reminder):
SIDE NOTE: "Model Wars" ... The EURO model is doing well with Matthew, however once past Haiti/Cuba, it has been all over the place. The GFS, while larger in error in the Caribbean, has been steady in showing east coast threat for the past week, which EURO did not show at all until this past Sunday. So it appears that it will be a draw between the “nearly worshiped” model and the “most maligned” model. This is why computers offer "guidance" and forecasters are needed to make the forecast: Computers make mistakes.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.