Sample Forecast changes for Thu night as week progressed based on models:
- Mon: Snow … next …
- Mon Night: Rain to snow … next …
- Tue: Rain showers to snow showers … next
- Tue Night: Rain shower … next
- Wed: Rain showers … next
- Wed Night: Rain showers to stray snow shower … next
And now the models are showing rain to snow. Not much of each, so this is a light event, but it illustrates how when forecasting, you get a picture in your head, and as long as observations offer support, you stick with it. And you adjust or fine tune when appropriate not with every model run.
So, I will fine tune the forecast for tonight and then our focus turns to Sunday/Sunday night and Tuesday night/Wed time periods.
- Sun/Sun night is mainly a snow event. Several inches are likely. The snow should start in the afternoon and become heavier by evening and continue until around midnight. Some rain may try to mix in late evening, but I doubt it right now.
- Tues Night/Wed looks like a 50/50 event. First half snow, second half rain. Storm track should bring in enough mild air to make for a cold rain, with temperatures in the mid-30s, and a nasty, back breaking sloppy clean up Wed morning.