Tonight, will be a perfect reason why when forecasting, you don’t change your forecast with every single model run. If you did, the forecast for Thu night may have changed like this as week progressed:
Sample Forecast changes for Thu night as week progressed based on models:
And now the models are showing rain to snow. Not much of each, so this is a light event, but it illustrates how when forecasting, you get a picture in your head, and as long as observations offer support, you stick with it. And you adjust or fine tune when appropriate not with every model run.
So, I will fine tune the forecast for tonight and then our focus turns to Sunday/Sunday night and Tuesday night/Wed time periods.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.