Heatwave 2019

​The sensational headlines are coming fast and furious. And the focus is on “Heat Index” because those numbers are higher and make people think about how terrible the heat is. Yet, we are not likely to set any records this weekend. In other words, we’ve been this hot before. It’s summer in PA. It gets hot from time to time.
Some notes on this:

1. I am not downplaying the heat. Be smart. Stay refreshed. Drink lots of water. Take breaks. But historically, this heat is not at all unprecedented. In July 2011 we had 5 days of near 100-degree highs. We may not even have one this time.  
2. Some forecasts are likely overstating the heat index for headlines. Sorry to be cynical, but I believe it to be true. Forecasters know that the American models often overstate dew point temperatures (Note: Euro, French, and German all show lower dew points due to point #3).    Widespread dew points in the upper 70's to 80 simply don’t happen here, esp. with point #3. But higher dew points mean higher heat index = headlines.
3. A west wind is likely to develop Sat as a W-E frontal boundary will be to our north. A west wind blowing down the Allegheny Mtns warms and dries as it descends. As it grows warmer it begins to rise leading to a mixing of the air. This leads to higher temperatures, but lower dew points. Seen it many times. Suspect this will happen again.
4. This heatwave may start with a barely reaching 90 on Fri and then on Sun if that boundary to our north does slip south enough, we may not reach 90 on Sun.

 
So be careful. Be smart. We will survive. We will live to see another day. This is not a death ridge. This is not the apocalypse. It is weather doing its thing. It gets hot in the summer.

(Side thought: We will avg about 10 degrees above avg on Sat. Lots of headlines coming out about the danger. Now in Jan, if its 10 degrees below avg (25 for high, 8 for a low) what headlines would be there? None. Except for “cold”. In other words, it gets cold in Jan. Just like in July. It gets hot.)

Our heatwave will end Monday with showers and storms into Tue. Much cooler next week.

Stay safe. And enjoy.