Happy New Year

From Friday’s Update:

“Messy Monday: Cloudy with chance for light freezing rain/drizzle then light rain. Temperatures will be raw and chilly as they will be stuck in the 30s all day. Wet Tuesday: Periods of rain for Tuesday into early Wednesday. Temperatures slowly rise into the 40s and then jump to 50 or higher early Wednesday with the passage of the cold front. Colder Wednesday night and for the near future. Chance for accumulating snow Fri and Sat.”
 
The whole forecast is rather good but some adjustments are needed.

1. Today: No changes. Damp with light rain. Temperatures rising into the upper 30s.
2. Tuesday: Rain. Temperatures rising into the low 40s and holding there Tuesday night.
3. Wednesday: Chance for a shower. Clearing. Colder with temperatures starting in the mid-40s but falling into the 30s. Much colder Wednesday night.
4. Thursday: Clouds increase again. Chance for light snow at night. Highs around 30. This system is not being handled well by the models. There should be some light snow with it. See map below for details of the error the model is likely making.
5. Friday: Chance for light snow early. Cold. Highs in the 20s.
6. Saturday: Sun and clouds but clouds could increase overnight. Highs in the 20s.
7. Sunday: Cloudy. Chance for snow. This system could be significant. The potential is there and it could fit the pattern.  Strong energy will support this system aloft, so there be a decent area of low pressure. The question is whether is it suppressed too far south.  See map for illustration on upper level support for storm. 

Footnote: The computer models have been horrible after its 72 to 96 hour forecasts. It is one of the most consistantly bad stretches of recent memory. And this includes all of the models. One run to the next can differ significantly and its been going on for a few weeks at least. Just really bad. 

The computers are to help give us guidance or ideas as to what may be coming in the days ahead. But when they are so bad, you might as well throw them out and just go with what seems reasonable knowing what we have had in the pattern so far ... 

1. SE ridge keeps reappearing. Don't undersestimate it. Suppressed storms are unlikely as warm has outdueled the cold so far this winter in the East and Southeast US. 
2. Cold will come, but will leave again. So don't believe long term sustained cold yet.