Fun and Games

That about sums up the weather for Sun – Tue as a large slow moving Nor’easter impacts our area. There will be wind, rain, dropping temperatures and the question of wet snow. This storm will also signal a shift to colder more typical weather for the next 10-14 days. But does it last?  Hmmm. Still not convinced.
Details:

• Today: Cloudy. Periods of rain this afternoon into the evening. 1/4” - 1/2” is expected.
• Saturday: Peeks of sunshine but mostly cloudy. Mild.
• Sunday: increasing clouds. Rain arriving late. Heavy at times.
• Monday: Rain. Heavy at times. Windy. Raw. Temperatures dropping slowly.
• Monday Night: This is the fun period. The upper level pattern, the low position and track. The available moisture. The speed of the storm. The high pressure locked in to our north. All of them are a snow lover’s dream for the middle of January. (see maps to the left) BUT … we lack the cold air to start. So, the storm must either pull in cold air or create its own cold air. As it looks right now, the storm will do a little bit of both. If there is enough steady moderate to at times heavy precipitation around, we will likely change over to heavy wet snow. But if the precipitation is more sporadic and light, no snow. Heavier precipitation = stronger vertical motion = cooling of the air.  Light precipitation = weaker vertical motion = no cooler of the air. This is a question that cannot be answered just yet. Maybe by Saturday afternoon.
• Tuesday: Lingering rain/wet snow showers around.
• Wednesday: Pleasantly cool day with sun and clouds.
• Thursday: A few rain showers as pattern change sets in. Turning much colder.

 

Yes, a change to more typical winter weather will be occurring for about 10-14 days starting next Thursday (26th), but will it last?  I really do not think it will. The worst of winter has wanted to stay out west, and I believe it will stay that way until late February. I suspect March will be cold and perhaps wintry as the west warms up in early spring. We have had some cold winters and/or lots of snow over the last several years, while the far west has been mild and dry to very dry. So, it is good that they are getting lots of rain/snow. They need it.
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Enjoy what the LORD has made!