Focus on the Weekend Storm

Sorry for the lack of updates the last two days, but time was not available, and there wasn’t a reason to update. The current forecast looked good.

If you look back to Monday’s entry, you will note that I thought this storm would not be an all snow event for us. A change to sleet would occur. That is turning out to be very correct. But there are some things we do not yet know …

1. How long will it snow Sat evening?
2. How long a duration of sleet versus freezing rain and then rain?

 
The answers to the above two questions are not easily answered:

1. The path of the storm: It can only come so far north. So, no 60-degree surges are coming. But a more northerly path seems likely making for a quicker change from snow to sleet late Sat evening.  
2. Heavy Snow:  Heavy precipitation slows down the warming of the atmosphere. Is the snow heavy enough to resist?  If so, how long will it do so?  It should until at least 8 pm. But beyond that? This is where the boom/bust potential for snow exists. A good guess as best until we see the precipitation developing off to our SW. The moisture source is available for heavy snow, but will it produce?

One more consideration: There are similarities to the Nov snowstorm: heavy snow to begin giving way to sleet, freezing rain, and then rain. It even changed back to snow for some areas to our west. Again, there are similarities.
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It will be bitter cold Sun afternoon through Tue morning. Then we warm up in time for some rain showers on Wed followed by colder weather and maybe another storm to worry about on Thu?
Enjoy!