What is happening is that the models are either dragging their heels in moving the trough out of the SW US, or are too fast with the lead storm in southern Canada. Both known errors result in a too far south track of the system. It should be coming further north. Lo and behold this mornings NAM is shifting further north.
Full update tomorrow. Enjoy Sat. Chilly but very nice fall day. Sun not to shabby. Just more clouds than Sat. Rain holds off until early Mon morning. Much milder Tue - Thu next week!
Our storm will begin late Tue and last into Thu. Heavy rain is likely, with a good 1.25 – 1.75” likely, locally up to 2.5”. A soaking to say the least. Also, the remnants of Patricia will be entrained, thus giving the higher rain totals. It should get windy Wed night - Thursday. A thunderstorm is also possible.
Troughs in the east will not have staying power at all. They will come and go. Meaning real cold air will not be able to drive into the east over the next couple of weeks. This leaves us in a ridge-like environment with seasonally mild conditions, esp. beginning next week. This means, however, that the western troughs will be able to pick up Gulf moisture and as trough comes east, bring us soaking rains. The second fall rainstorm for us looks to occur late Sun-Mon.
My Weather Points for this Week:
- Rain: Soaking coming Wed. Some heavy rain. Showers ending early Thu. Light showers Fri afternoon possible. Sun – Mon more rain arriving.
- Windy: Strong gusty winds possible Thu, esp. over the ridges. Friday winds will also be gusty.
- Sunshine: Mon and Sat look the sunniest. Tue and Fri will be partly sunny.
- Chilly: Friday will feel chilly with the brisk winds blowing and building clouds in the afternoon. Most of the week outside of Wed/Thu will feature highs in the 50s. Seasonally cool. Nothing truly cold.
- Mild Weather: Tue night into Thu will be relatively mild. Temps overnight in the 50s then 60s during day and near 70 if we get enough sunshine on Thu.
Monday: 56. Mostly sunny. Quite pleasant.
Tuesday: 54. Partly sunny. Increasing clouds. Cool east flow developing.
Wednesday: 62. Mostly cloudy. Rain. Some heavy. Thunderstorm possible. Mild overnight.
Thursday: 66. Partly sunny. Showers possible in afternoon. Windy.
Friday: 55. Partly sunny. Much cooler. Breezy. Chance light shower in afternoon.
Saturday: 59. Sunshine after frosty morning.
Sunday: 56. Mostly cloudy. Showers arriving late.