Full Update will be on Sat morning, but I wanted to give an update due to many forecasts, esp. those on phones, and computers (which only come from GFS model) are going to be in error for Monday. I am too quick with our next rainstorm, but it should come early Monday and last most of the day. It will not produce 4-5.5" of rain as we had Wed/Wed evening. It will be more like around 3/4 - 1". Still a good soaking rain.
What is happening is that the models are either dragging their heels in moving the trough out of the SW US, or are too fast with the lead storm in southern Canada. Both known errors result in a too far south track of the system. It should be coming further north. Lo and behold this mornings NAM is shifting further north.
Full update tomorrow. Enjoy Sat. Chilly but very nice fall day. Sun not to shabby. Just more clouds than Sat. Rain holds off until early Mon morning. Much milder Tue - Thu next week!
Looks pretty ominous doesn't it? Well, it isn't. Just a good soaking rain coming for us. We could use it, as it has been dry of late. But this is not bringing major cold and nasty weather. It is a rainstorm with no real lasting cold in the near future either.
Our storm will begin late Tue and last into Thu. Heavy rain is likely, with a good 1.25 – 1.75” likely, locally up to 2.5”. A soaking to say the least. Also, the remnants of Patricia will be entrained, thus giving the higher rain totals. It should get windy Wed night - Thursday. A thunderstorm is also possible.
Troughs in the east will not have staying power at all. They will come and go. Meaning real cold air will not be able to drive into the east over the next couple of weeks. This leaves us in a ridge-like environment with seasonally mild conditions, esp. beginning next week. This means, however, that the western troughs will be able to pick up Gulf moisture and as trough comes east, bring us soaking rains. The second fall rainstorm for us looks to occur late Sun-Mon.
My Weather Points for this Week:
Monday: 56. Mostly sunny. Quite pleasant.
Tuesday: 54. Partly sunny. Increasing clouds. Cool east flow developing.
Wednesday: 62. Mostly cloudy. Rain. Some heavy. Thunderstorm possible. Mild overnight.
Thursday: 66. Partly sunny. Showers possible in afternoon. Windy.
Friday: 55. Partly sunny. Much cooler. Breezy. Chance light shower in afternoon.
Saturday: 59. Sunshine after frosty morning.
Sunday: 56. Mostly cloudy. Showers arriving late.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.