Final Thoughts on the Storm - Update

9:30 pm ... radar is unique tonight. A ragged semi-circle of yellow colored returns is developing. This is not due to sleet but melting snow flakes in the clouds. The atmospere is warmer at 6 - 7000 feet than it is on the surface of the ground. The flakes melt some, return a stronger radar echo, but are smaller and harder when they fall to the ground. So it is still technically snow. 

9:00 pm ... Timing of snow to sleet is working like clockwork. The rest should too. Too bad the snow took longer than expected to begin by a few hours ... it cost us 1-2" ... oh well ... maybe next time. Have a great night.

1. It remained mild last night.
2. Our dew points are still in the upper 20’s. The true arctic air is not going to make it into our area. We are close to it. But the cold air is not deep enough to hold on for a longer period of time.
3. Precipitation is looking healthy and heavy to our SW in the Mississippi and western Ohio River Valleys.
4. Initial burst of snow should become heavy.
5. #1 and #2 above indicate to me that the warm air will not be denied.
6. Milder surface temperatures will limit the amount of freezing rain to 1/10” or less.
7. Warm surge means we get up to 1” of rain poured into our snow/sleet = slop. 

I must confess. The snowfall accumulation is given with lower than normal confidence. A shift of 20 miles north or south could double it or cut it in half. A delay of 1 to 2 hours in the changeover could add 2-3". A very tough call when we are in the transition zone. 

This is my final update. We'll see how it goes. No matter what ... please enjoy. 
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