9:30 pm ... radar is unique tonight. A ragged semi-circle of yellow colored returns is developing. This is not due to sleet but melting snow flakes in the clouds. The atmospere is warmer at 6 - 7000 feet than it is on the surface of the ground. The flakes melt some, return a stronger radar echo, but are smaller and harder when they fall to the ground. So it is still technically snow.
9:00 pm ... Timing of snow to sleet is working like clockwork. The rest should too. Too bad the snow took longer than expected to begin by a few hours ... it cost us 1-2" ... oh well ... maybe next time. Have a great night.
I must confess. The snowfall accumulation is given with lower than normal confidence. A shift of 20 miles north or south could double it or cut it in half. A delay of 1 to 2 hours in the changeover could add 2-3". A very tough call when we are in the transition zone.
This is my final update. We'll see how it goes. No matter what ... please enjoy.
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Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.