9:30 pm ... radar is unique tonight. A ragged semi-circle of yellow colored returns is developing. This is not due to sleet but melting snow flakes in the clouds. The atmospere is warmer at 6 - 7000 feet than it is on the surface of the ground. The flakes melt some, return a stronger radar echo, but are smaller and harder when they fall to the ground. So it is still technically snow.
9:00 pm ... Timing of snow to sleet is working like clockwork. The rest should too. Too bad the snow took longer than expected to begin by a few hours ... it cost us 1-2" ... oh well ... maybe next time. Have a great night.
I must confess. The snowfall accumulation is given with lower than normal confidence. A shift of 20 miles north or south could double it or cut it in half. A delay of 1 to 2 hours in the changeover could add 2-3". A very tough call when we are in the transition zone.
This is my final update. We'll see how it goes. No matter what ... please enjoy.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.