The transition is well underway, and by this weekend we will have a trough dominating our weather. The ridge is going down in defeat. This will happen as a new ridge builds along the west coast of the US. This ridge will then slowly migrate northward and settle around Canada/Alaska border.This along with a polar vortex settling around northern Hudson Bay, with a flow of storms undercutting the ridge along the west coast will lead to potentially stormy pattern from mid-January on into March. The pattern should peak in February to the first week in March.
The pictures above illustrate what is expected to happen, and the models are seeing it. We go from red or above normal to blue, below normal. So no need to change and say "winter is over". It has not begun. But it will. And again, we'll talk in March and see what kind of winter we had. Those that love snow, I think will be very happy come March.
Now on to Tonight's/Tuesday's Storm. The first winter storm of the season. And it won't really do all that much for us. Some sleet, some freezing rain mainly north, ridge tops, and on trees/power lines. Ground is just too warm to support ice on roads, etc. We have not even dropped below freezing for over a week, so ice accumulation is not going to happen on the ground in our area. Some sleet could coat the ground, including the roads in cold spots for a brief period of time late this evening. But that will change to rain by midnight. And stay rain until ending mid morning Tue. Points to remember:
- Not starting until after dark.
- Too warm for freezing rain to accumulate on road surfaces.
- Rain to start, switching to sleet for a few hours [occurs because atmosphere cools due to low dew point temperatures and some precipitation evaporating into the dry air, thus cooling the atmosphere. This leads to sleet for a time]
- Sleet switching back over to with some possibly freezing on trees/power lines on colder ridges mainly to our north.
- Some heavy rain possible. 1-1.5" precipitation likely.
After this storm its mild Tue, Wed, Thu. Some showers Wed night into Thu. Colder Fri -Sun.
Weather Points this Week:
- Rain: 1.5" total for the whole week. Most tonight - Tue. Some more Wed night-Thu but less than quarter of an inch.
- Snow: Flurries and a few snow showers are possible later this coming weekend. No snowstorms are expected through the first week in January.
- Cold: It will feel very cold this coming weekend. But all in all, it will be about seasonal to slightly below. But it is January by then, so what would you expect?
Today: Thickening clouds. Rain after dark, changing to sleet quickly. A coating to 1/2" at most possible, changing to rain by midnight with some freezing on trees/power lines esp. on ridge tops. Rain heavy at times. Temperatures slowly rising to near 40 by morning.
Tuesday: 46. Rain ending. Drizzle. Mostly cloudy.
Wednesday: 48. Some sun. More clouds later. Showers possible at night.
Thursday: 47. Showers ending. Growing colder later. Clearing.
Friday: 39. Clouds and sun. Colder.
Saturday: 35. Clouds and sun. Flurries. Chance snow shower.
Sunday. 30. Clouds and sun. Cold. Flurries. Chance snow showers. Windy.