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Faithful Forecast

A Forecast for Southern Schuylkill and Northern Lebanon County  

Storm Update

2/17/2021

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Noon Update:  Storm going as expected so far.  We had the moderate to briefly heavy snow this morning. Now the sporadic snow will be prevalent through 6 pm. It appears more sporadic than first thought. I was not expecting much accumulation this afternoon. Maybe 1".

Remember:
  1. Storm total is through 7 am Friday not noon Thu.
  2. Stoppage in snow does not mean storm is over. See #3 below from previous forecast. 

Part 2 comes later this evening into Fri morning. How much comes is still questionable.  I believe we will end closer 5" than the 8".

Enjoy 

--------------------------
Storm Forecast. 

  1. Snow to start after 3 am.
  2. Snow moderate to heavy through Noon.
  3. Light snow could become sporadic through 6 pm.
  4. Steady light snow much of time Thu night into Fri.

Accumulation through Friday 7 am: 5-8”.
​
Note: This is not a big storm. It will not dump huge amounts of snow. Yet it will snow and it will snow for awhile. It will snow lightly for the most part. 5-8" is a good storm.

Concerns: I do not feel all that confident in this forecast. Reasons:
  1. The system looks moist, but all modeling says it will only give us about a 1/2" of moisture. Current radar looks more moist than that. Interesting to see how it evolves.
  2. This storm is in two pieces. The first tomorrow morning into early afternoon. The second tomorrow night into Friday morning. Does the snow stop, or does a bridge of snow develop between them? An unknown, plus the second piece itself is a bit of an unknown. It appears light, but is it 1-2" or 3-5" light? 

After the storm ends by sometime Friday, we get a nice weekend. Cold, but nice. Then another storm on Monday. Wouldn’t be funny if the storm next Monday brought us more snow than these last two "bigger storms" combined?  It could happen. But first things first.
 
Details:

Thursday: Snow. Heaviest in the morning. 26.
Friday: Periods of light snow. Storm total snow 5-8” with locally higher amounts. 32.
Saturday: Partly sunny. Cold. 26.
Sunday: Mostly sunny. Cold morning. 28.
Monday: Snow likely. 34.
Tuesday: Partly sunny. 36.
Wednesday: Mostly sunny. 38.
 
Enjoy. 

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    Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.

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