February 14th, 2017

Discussion:

The winter trend of cold, then warm, then cold, then warm again. And the warm periods outweigh the cold periods. December was about 1.5 degrees above average, January nearly 6 degrees and so far, February is starting off more than 5 degrees above average through the 13th. I wouldn’t be surprised if February ends up being the warmest of the winter months relative to average. It has been awhile since we have been this mild in February. We have had some cold snowy February’s the last several years. This is a change.

Our pattern will supply some relatively cold days through Friday, before another warm up comes.  This warm up resembles the January Thaw in magnitude and duration.  After that there are indications that the last seven days of February and the first half of March could be stormy. Does that mean snow?  Cannot say. Each storm will need to be taken individually as cold will be available in some form.

This leads me to this comment: Is a snowstorm in March a spring snow storm or a winter snowstorm?  I have read of some forecasters who are saying winter is over and spring is arriving early in the east, as it will warm up again starting this weekend.  I am confused.  We have done this all winter: Nov. Dec, Jan, and no Feb. But the Feb Thaw is now the signal for lasting spring?  Yet, the same “models” that showed these warm ups are indicating a stormy end of February and beginning of March with the possibility of some bringing snow!  It seems like nothing has changed … yet. I believe it will continue even through spring. Thus a warm spring looks likely.

But does that mean wet?  Not sure. I am more concerned about dry than wet. Hopefully this will change.

Getting beck to this week. The storm I have been watching for with all the ingredients there for a major system, will come together too late for our area. We will get some gusty winds and possibly a snow shower or two, but that will be all. For northern PA and NY there will be light snow. Eastern New England and northern NY will receive moderate snow, and Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine are in line for a wind driven heavy snowfall. Things calm down Friday and then it warms up with sunshine Saturday, Sunday, and Monday. A potentially significant rainstorm will impact us next Tue/Wed. 

• Tuesday/Wednesday: Sun and clouds. Seasonal.
• Wednesday night/Thursday: Cold with some light snow showers. Strong gusty winds, but weaker than on this past Monday.  
• Friday: Less windy and cold. Flurries.
• Saturday/Sunday/Monday: Mostly sunny. Turning milder once again.

Enjoy.