February 14th, 2016

Final Winter Storm Forecast: 3” snow with some ice and 1"+ rain. 

We have a winter storm coming Mon-Tues. This is how I believe forecast will unfold:

1. Light snow develops Mon by midday. Snow mixes with sleet Mon evening.   
2. Between 8-9 pm snow/sleet changes to freezing rain. The rain will be light. 1/10 - 2/10th of inch of ice by midnight. 
3. After midnight all precipitation changes to light rain. It could become heavy at times in the late morning and early afternoon. Temps will rise to near 47. 
4. The heaviest snows should be west of a Bedford to State College to Rome NY line.  

The reason I adjusted down 1" is that the storm track is just a little further west than my initial thinking from several days ago. We are now into the very details of the storm so adjustments like this need to be made. The track is likely just west of Harrisburg to just east of Williamsport.

This places us on the east side of the storm. Warmer air will act like a bulldozer just shoving this cold out of here. The south winds are coming straight out of the Gulf of Mexico. There are no mountains to protect the cold from this southerly flow just above the surface. in fact, under this set up, if not for the extensive cold covering the eastern US, I would actually go lower with snow totals, but due to the depth of the cold, the snow will be very, very fluffy to start. So it gets a little boost because of that. 

Also, due to the storm tracking a little further west, there will not be any accumulation from rain changing back over to snow. We are too far south and east for that. Plus with temps rising into the 40's ... sorry, with no real cold push, just not enough to produce a burst of snow.  

Ending Note: Winter is not over. It will be milder Tomorrow, and then again Sat and Sun. But colder weather will return next week with a strong signal for a winter storm next Tue/Wed. We should be able to talk about true spring like weather around the middle of March. Or when winter often does end anyway. 

The Next Seven Days: 

Monday: 27. Cloudy. Light snow developing, possibly heavy for a short time this evening. 3" snow. Snow changing to ice by 9 pm and then rain after midnight. Temps rising through the 20's to at least mid-30's by morning.
        
Tuesday: 47. Rain. Could be heavy late morning through early afternoon. Localized flooding is possible. Windy, cooler overnight.
     
Wednesday: 32. Partly sunny to mostly cloudy. Snow showers possible. Perhaps a coating to 1/2"

Thursday: 28. Sun and clouds. Colder. Flurries.
  
Friday: 30. Cold morning. Mostly sunny. Clouds increase at night.
  
Saturday: 40. Mostly cloudy. Milder. Rain showers possible.

Sunday: 44. Sun and clouds. Breezy. Mild.