February 12th, 2016

Got some beautiful sunshine early this morning. Of course I am inside. A tad chilly this morning (-1 at my house in the valley. BRRR). Well, some wondered not that long ago is winter would show up. Guess it did. Winter is here. But for how long?  Probably longer than most want …

There are some interesting weather events that look to impact us over the next several days.

Weather Points for Next 7 Days:

1. Arctic front passes through later tonight. This should bring some snow squalls with it. Hard to pinpoint who gets what but most should get from 1” with locally up to 2-3”. This will be very, very fluffy snow.  
2. Windy: Strong winds will accompany front. They will continue through Sat before weakening slowly Sat night. Wind chills will be below zero Sat into Sun morning.   
3. Monday afternoon – Tuesday evening Storm. The things we know:
   1. Lots of cold air around to start.
   2. No real support to keep cold air locked in. Warm air will root out much of it along the East coast.
   3. Lots of available moisture. This means lots of snow for someone, lots of rain for another, and lots of snow/ice/rain for others.
   4. Pattern is progressive. This storm will keep moving along.
4. Monday afternoon – Tuesday evening Storm. The things we don’t know:
   1. The exact storm track. This is crucial to who gets snow and who gets rain or mixed. A difference of 100 miles will make difference from 12”+ snow to 2” rain.
   2. How strong the front running energy will be on Monday. This is THE KEY to our forecast. The stronger this energy is when passing through our area Monday (with some light snow) the further east the main storm will track. See forecast options with pictures below for visual on this.
   3. How much snow?  How much ice?  How much rain?  My first guess will come Sat evening.   
5. Smaller Snow: Some more light snow is possible Wed - Wed night 

   
Upcoming 7 Days:

Friday: 27. Increasing clouds. Snow squalls and flurries overnight with arctic front. 1-2” in locales that get a squall.  

Saturday: 18. Sun and clouds. Strong gusty, bitter winds. Very cold. Flurries.  Temps falling slowly to around zero by Sun morning. Below zero on ridges.       

Sunday: 15. Mostly sunny. Very cold. Temps dropping to zero or slightly below in valleys early before rising with increasing clouds late at night.     

Monday: 24. Cloudy. Periods of light snow developing.  Steady snow overnight could become heavy at times after midnight. Temps fall to near 20 early, then slowly rising overnight to near 30 by sunrise.        

Tuesday: 38. Snow changing to ice early and then rain by afternoon before ending by evening. Windy late.     

Wednesday: 33. Mostly cloudy to partly sunny early. Chance light snow in the afternoon. .

Thursday: 28. Sun and clouds. Cold.  

​          Forecast Option #1

I have circled the front running energy for early Monday. This energy is very weak, as the GFS and other models are dampening it out. This results in a more rapidly building ridge and thus a warmer solution with storm tracking into south central PA on Tuesday.  This second storm is represented by the mass of green/orange/yellow energy to the SW of red circle around Oklahoma. 

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​          Forecast Option #2

I have circled on this map, the same energy. The NAM and other models are showing much stronger  energy moving through on Monday. This helps to knock down the building ridge a little. Not a massive difference, but it does result in a colder and more easterly storm track. You can already see the difference in that the energy to the SW of red circle is not in OK, but is in eastern Arkansas/northern Mississippi.  

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