Fall Weather Arrives and Stays Around

Tuesday Morning Note: Rains are ending early this morning. Not as widespread as was advertised or thought. Some very heavy showers came through during the last few hours, but not everyone got a heavy shower. Due to the progressive and weakening nature of the rain, .5" will be the max amount for most. Yes, I was overdone, but so was most of the guidance too. The NAM (which is ridiculed often) did the best. It depicted a diminishing rain shield in our area, before slowing and re intensifying to our east. That forecast looks correct. (This storm did not look solid in my 2"+ rule or the area, thus I stayed under. Even that was overdone.) 

Rest of forecast looks good. Expect partial sunshine and windy conditions. Some showers overnight again. Cooler. Big storm Sunday. 

​Enjoy. 

Discussion:
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I pray you have enjoyed our amazing run of picture perfect weather (IMHO!). Sunshine and warm afternoons after cool refreshing mornings.  Still one more mild day in store for Monday, but clouds will limit any sunshine. Then the changes begin.

Major storm developing and moving to our west will bring a slug of deep moisture across our area on Tuesday morning. There will be heavy rain and even an embedded thunderstorm is possible. I expect around 1.5 – 2”of rain for most. Showers will linger into early Wed.

Behind Tuesday’s storm we have windy and cool conditions with partial sun on Wednesday. More sunshine and less wind for Thursday, and Friday. Clouds increase again Saturday ahead of another major storm system. This storm will be very similar to Tuesday’s: heavy rain, and chance for a thunderstorm.  It too could bring a widespread 2” of rain.

Why 2” of rain? An observed rule for our local area is that when a storm tracks to our west, individual showers/storms within the area of rain move north to south, and storm pulls in deep moisture out of the tropics, we get 2” or more of rain. This rule has worked many times, but it has failed only a couple of times over the last several years, and even then, we got over 1” of rain. Both storms coming up over the next 7 days, appear to fit this rule. The models are now showing the heavy rain for Tuesday, but there is disagreement over next weekend’s system. I do, however, stand by the observation. Real life stuff trumps computer stuff.

Much colder weather is coming for Wednesday – Friday, however, it will really be close to seasonal averages. We’ve been SO warm that a drop of 15 degrees simply means returning to average for the time of year. It will warm up some on Saturday, but then turn rather chilly behind the second storm next weekend.  That cold air could produce some snow showers in the mountains, but nothing for us. 

Summary:

1. Low-pressure brings increasing clouds Monday and heavy rain early Tuesday.
2. Windy and colder Wednesday and Thursday.
3. Sunshine and clouds Friday and Saturday.
4. Low-pressure brings the threat of heavy rain back into the area for Sunday into Sunday night (29th)

 
Dailies:
Monday: Mostly cloudy. Mild.   
Tuesday: Morning rain. Heavy at times. Thunderstorm possible. Mild. Windy. 
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. Partial afternoon sun. Windy. Colder. Chance for a shower.       
Thursday: Mostly sunny.  Cool. Frost possible overnight.    
Friday: Mostly sunny. A little milder.
Saturday: Milder with increasing clouds. Chance for showers. 
Sunday: Cloudy, cooler with chance for heavy rain.