Got some interesting stuff going on in the world of weather. In case you’ve been hiding in a cave the alst few days, it’s very warm outside! I didn’t even have to turn on the heat this morning! Crazy for February.
Now, the pattern for this warmth is also crazy. Using the same period of the 18-27 of each month, we have this:
December averaged 3.5 degrees above average, January 12 above average, and so far, Feb (18-22) is 15 degrees above average. These time periods were all the warmest 10 days of the month. It’s like a 4 week cycle: Starts mild, gets cold, turns warm, then the cycle starts all over. And heading into March, there are indications that the same pattern will hold. This means we should cool off starting next week, yet stay mild, then grow “cold” for 7-19 days and then get warm again. And probably stay warm through the rest of spring, as the season change adjusts the weather patterns.
This idea is not based on a model, set of ensembles, set of weekly outlooks or such. It based on simple observation as to what is going on. This pattern idea is the reason I was so skeptical of the locking in of cold for the month of February, and is the reason I am skeptical of a “winter’s over” cry and the dawning of an extra early spring. There is one more period of “cold” weather that could deliver some winter weather. But I suppose those who said it was over in mid-Feb would call that “spring snow from a rogue storm”? Little sarcasm there. I believe, that once past the middle of March, it’s over.
Getting back to this week; warm through late Saturday, then colder, a warm up for midweek, followed by much colder weather. One more period of potentially winter-like weather before winter is officially done (not that we had that much to speak of).
· Today: Sun and clouds as cool front never made it this far south. Very warm. Highs low 70s.
· Saturday: Rain arrives in afternoon. Warm. Chance for a thunderstorm as front passes.
· Sunday/Monday: Much colder. Chance of showers Monday.
· Monday Night/Tuesday/Wednesday: Chance showers. Turning milder.
· Thursday: Colder. Sun and clouds.