We went from mid 60s Tue ... to 50 Wed ... to mid 20s Thu ... to low 50s Today ... to mid 50s Sat ... to 40 Sun ... to upper 20s Monday. Welcome to spring! Where it does not stay cold long, and the wind likes to blow.
Expect some snow on Sunday night and Monday. A storm will come out of the Southern Plains/Texas and move east northeast toward the east coast. There will be lots of moisture coming out of the Gulf of Mexico surging north. At the same time a cold high will be building southeast from central Canada. The ingredients are there for a significant snowfall. But like a recipe the ingredients have to come together just right.
The following are my thoughts right now regarding this snow which I would expect at least a few inches of snow:
- Progressive Pattern: Models drag energy too much in SW leaving storm suppressed too much. Being a progressive pattern, this energy should kick out making the storm move further north.
- More concerned that storm could go far enough north to make snow turn to rain here, then storm crushed to the south.
- Polar Vortex is not the same as it was with the debacle from two weeks ago so this will not crush the storm like it did then.
- Enjoying seeing other meteorologists out there tripping over themselves to get the first call snow map out there two weeks ago ... and now tripping over each other as to who is being the most "cautious". The contrast is simply amazing.
Enjoy the warmth of today and tomorrow. It will get cold, but warm up again. It is the middle of March after all.