Earlier this week I mentioned that this coming week, starting Mon, would feature two systems that were interesting and could bring snow or rain or both. The first was to come on Monday. I enjoyed watching some public forecasts go from sunny to clouds to now chance for snow/rain. When you trust in one model, you tend to make more mistakes. GFS (American) is simply not great at this set up. We have a frontal system moving through on Sunday (The leader). There may be a shower or two. Not much though. Cooler air will filter in slowly. The follower system comes for Monday. Snow is likely to break out early (7-9 am). It could be a period of rain at first, but change to wet snow quickly. The snow will come down light to moderate and end by mid afternoon. Accumulations will be elevation and temperature dependent.
The second storm you are probably beginning to hear about. Snowstorm possible late Wed into very early Thu. And it could be significant. Please understand that word, significant. Last winter I measured about 7" of snow for the whole season. This storm on Wed/Thu could bring 7". I call that significant compared to the last two years. it could be more and it could be less. The Wed system could start as snow, and then mix/change to ice/rain for a time. I am a little concerned it will come a little too far NW and bring in some warmer air, giving us a mix of stuff. But those details will be worked out after Monday's smaller shot of winter weather.
Sunday: Cloudy. Chance for a shower. Mild then cooler late. 52.
Monday: Snow develops early, ends by 3 pm. 1-2" valleys, 2-4" ridges. 35.
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. 32.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. Snow develops after 3 pm. 35.
Wednesday Night: Snow. Possibly heavy. Chance ice/rain mixing in.
Thursday: Snow ends early. Clearing. 36.
Friday: Partly to mostly sunny. 33.
Saturday: Partly to mostly sunny. 36.
Pastor Terry. He received his bachelors degree in Meteorology from the State University of New York at Oneonta, in 1994. The education continued as a hobby by reading the blogs of some of the best forecasters in the business. Although forceasting the weather is an imperfect science, it is a pleasure to follow what the Creator has made.